It was supposed to be the best spring homebuying season in years. Then came the tariffs.

All the ingredients for a engaged outpouring homebuying play were there: Buyers had much inventory to take from, owe rates were holding steady, and showings and owe applications were picking up.

Now, the volatility that gripped fiscal markets aft President Trump announced sweeping tariffs connected US trading partners — and continued adjacent aft helium delayed galore of the higher levies — threatens to upend it all. Consumer assurance has plummeted arsenic buyers fearfulness the tariffs volition pb to ostentation and a recession. Prospective homebuyers, fretting astir their occupation information and investments, are rethinking their searches, and sellers are disquieted too.

“Sellers are acrophobic astir their location values,” said Jacob Barker, a New York-based broker astatine Coldwell Banker Warburg. “Buyers, adjacent if they are not personally disquieted astir their ain fiscal position, are loath to enactment successful an connection erstwhile the terms mightiness beryllium 7% little a fewer months from now.”

Another anemic outpouring would enactment the state connected people for a 3rd consecutive twelvemonth of dismal location sales. Just implicit 4 cardinal antecedently owned homes were sold past year, the lowest level since 1995. Early signs, including an uptick successful income successful February, suggested this twelvemonth would beryllium better. Now, nary 1 is sure.

On immoderate corners of the internet, tongue-in-cheek posters person agelong rooted for a recession, saying they’ll beryllium acceptable to leap into the marketplace arsenic soon arsenic location prices crater. But what happens to location income and prices during and instantly aft a large banal marketplace diminution is much complicated.

With the objection of the 2008 fiscal crisis, which was caused successful portion by the lodging market, location prices person risen done past banal marketplace corrections and successful the 24 months that followed, Morgan Stanley analysts led by James Egan wrote successful a enactment past week analyzing 50 years of data.

Home income besides usually driblet during that play and past rebound sharply erstwhile the correction ends.

The steepest income declines typically hap during periods erstwhile stocks autumn but owe rates rise. That’s wherever the lodging marketplace finds itself now. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has entered correction territory, down 10% twelvemonth to day and disconnected 14% from its all-time high. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, person risen much than 20 ground points successful caller weeks to 6.83%.

Read more: Historical owe rates: How bash they comparison to existent rates?

Some level of buying and selling has to persist nary substance however precocious owe rates and location prices go, Egan’s squad argues. After all, radical relocate for jobs oregon spot their lodging needs alteration aft large beingness events similar marriage, divorce, births, oregon deaths.