Iran protests spark regime survival question as exiled dissident says it feels like a ‘revolution’

As protests dispersed crossed Iran and the authorities responds with lethal force, amid expanding reports claiming thousands person been killed, a increasing question is being debated by analysts and Iranians alike: Is the Islamic Republic facing its astir superior menace since the 1979 revolution, oregon does it inactive clasp capable coercive powerfulness to survive?

For Mehdi Ghadimi, an Iranian writer who spent decades protesting the authorities earlier being forced to permission the country, this infinitesimal feels fundamentally antithetic from thing that came before.

"From 1999, erstwhile I was astir fifteen, until 2024, erstwhile I was forced to permission Iran, I took portion successful each thoroughfare protestation against the Islamic Republic," Ghadimi told Fox News Digital. "For astir fractional of those years, I supported the reformist movement. But aft 2010, we became definite that the Islamic Republic is not reformable, that changing its factions is simply a fiction."

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Demonstrators pain pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei extracurricular the Iranian embassy during a rally successful enactment of nationwide protests successful Iran, successful London, Britain, Jan. 12, 2026.  (Toby Melville/Reuters)

According to Ghadimi, that realization gradually dispersed crossed Iranian society, culminating successful what helium describes arsenic a decisive displacement successful the existent unrest.

"For the archetypal clip successful the 47 years of conflict by the Iranian radical against the Islamic Republic, the thought of returning to the play earlier January 1979 became the sole request and the cardinal constituent of unity among the people," helium said. "As a result, we witnessed the astir wide beingness of radical from each cities and villages of Iran successful the streets, connected a standard unprecedented successful immoderate erstwhile protests."

Ghadimi claimed the chants connected the streets reflected that shift. Instead of demanding economical alleviation oregon changes to formal codes, protesters openly called for the autumn of the Islamic Republic and the instrumentality of the Pahlavi dynasty.

"At that point, it nary longer seemed that we were simply protesting," helium said. "We were, successful fact, carrying retired a revolution."

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This framework drawback from a video released Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, by Iranian authorities tv shows a antheral holding a instrumentality to papers burning vehicles during a nighttime of wide protests successful Zanjan, Iran.  (Iranian authorities TV via AP)

Still, Ghadimi was wide astir what helium believes is preventing the regime’s collapse.

"The reply is precise clear," helium said. "The authorities sets nary bounds for itself erstwhile it comes to sidesplitting its ain people."

He added that Tehran appears reassured by the deficiency of consequences for its actions. "It has besides been reassured by the behaviour of different countries that if it manages to survive, it volition not beryllium punished for these blatant crimes against humanity," helium said. "The doors of diplomacy volition ever stay unfastened to them, adjacent if their hands are stained with blood."

Ghadimi described however the authorities chopped disconnected net entree to disrupt coordination betwixt protesters and absorption enactment abroad. He said that erstwhile connectivity was severed, the scope of video messages from the exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi dropped dramatically.

While Iranian voices picture a revolutionary moment, information and argumentation experts caution that structural realities inactive favour the regime.

Javed Ali, an subordinate prof astatine the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, said the Islamic Republic is facing acold much superior threats to its grip connected powerfulness than successful years past, driven by a convergence of military, regional, economical and diplomatic pressures.

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In this representation released by the authoritative website of the bureau of the Iranian ultimate leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, reviews a radical of equipped forces cadets during their graduation ceremonial accompanied by commanders of the equipped forces, astatine the constabulary academy successful Tehran, Iran, Monday, Oct. 3, 2022.  (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

"The IRGC is successful a overmuch weaker presumption pursuing the 12-day warfare with Israel past summer," Ali said, citing "leadership removals, ballistic rocket and drone capabilities that were utilized oregon damaged, and an aerial and radar defence web that has been importantly degraded."

Ali said Iran’s determination deterrence has besides eroded sharply. "The alleged Axis of Resistance has been importantly weakened crossed the region," helium said, pointing to setbacks suffered by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias allied with Tehran.

Internally, Ali said demographic unit is intensifying the challenge. "Iran’s younger colonisation is adjacent much frustrated than earlier with deteriorating economical conditions, ongoing societal and taste restrictions and repeated convulsive crackdowns connected dissent," helium said.

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Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pictured sitting adjacent to elder subject authoritative successful Iran. (Getty Images)

Ali besides pointed to shifting outer dynamics that are limiting Tehran’s country to maneuver, including what helium described arsenic a stronger U.S.-Israel narration tied to the Netanyahu-Trump alliance. He added that determination are "possible associated operations already underway to enactment the protestation question wrong Iran."

Israeli information sources, speaking connected background, said Israel has nary specified involvement successful intervening successful a mode that would let Tehran to redirect home unrest outward.

"Everyone understands it is amended to beryllium and hold softly and not pull the occurrence toward Israel," 1 root said. "The authorities would similar to marque this astir Israel and the Zionist force and commencement different warfare to repress interior protests."

"It is not Israel against Iran," the root added. "We admit that the authorities has an involvement successful provoking us, and we bash not privation to lend to that."

Burning debris lies adjacent to an overturned dumpster successful the mediate of a thoroughfare during unrest amid demonstrations successful Hamedan, Iran, connected Jan. 1, 2026. The demonstrations erupted aft shopkeepers successful Tehran's Grand Bazaar unopen their businesses to protestation the crisp autumn of Iran's currency and worsening economical conditions, with clashes reported successful respective provinces and Iranian media and rights groups saying aggregate radical were killed successful the violence, marking the largest protests to deed the Islamic Republic successful 3 years. (Mobina / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

The root said a illness of the Islamic Republic would person far-reaching consequences. "If the authorities falls, it volition impact the full Middle East," the authoritative said. "It could unfastened a caller era."

Ali said Iran is progressively isolated diplomatically. "There is increasing isolation from Gulf monarchies, the autumn of Assad successful Syria and lone muted enactment from China and Russia," helium said.

Despite those pressures, Ali cautioned that Iran’s coercive institutions stay loyal.

"I deliberation the IRGC, including Basiji paramilitary elements, on with the Ministry of Intelligence, are inactive loyal to the authorities retired of a premix of ideology, religion, and self-interest," helium said, citing "power, wealth and influence."

Whether fearfulness of illness could thrust insiders to defect remains unclear. "Whether determination are insiders consenting to flip due to the fact that of a consciousness of imminent illness of the clerical operation is hard to know," Ali said.

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A demonstrator gestures extracurricular the Iranian embassy during a rally successful enactment of nationwide protests successful Iran, successful London, Britain, Jan. 12, 2026.  (Toby Melville/Reuters)

He placed the probability of an interior authorities illness astatine "25% oregon less," calling it "possible, but acold little probable."

For now, Iran appears caught betwixt 2 realities: a colonisation progressively unified astir the rejection of the Islamic Republic, and a information apparatus inactive consenting to usage overwhelming unit to sphere it.

As Ali noted, unit unsocial does not bring regimes down. The decisive infinitesimal comes lone erstwhile those ordered to enforce repression determine it is nary longer successful their involvement to bash so.

Despite the standard of unrest, Ghadimi cautioned that the result remains uncertain.

"After these 4 hellish days, without adjacent knowing the destiny of our friends and loved ones who went into the streets, oregon whether they were live oregon not, it is genuinely hard for maine to springiness you a wide appraisal and accidental whether our gyration is present moving toward triumph oregon not," helium said.

He recalled a connection helium heard repeatedly earlier leaving Iran, crossed cities and societal classes.

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A protester faces Iranian information forces during clashes amid nationwide unrest, according to images released by the Iranian absorption radical National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) (NCRI )

"The lone happening I consistently heard was this: ‘We person thing near to lose, and adjacent astatine the outgo of our lives, we volition not retreat 1 measurement from our request for the autumn of the Islamic Republic,’" Ghadimi said. "They asked maine to committedness that present that I americium extracurricular Iran, I would beryllium their voice."

"That tone is what inactive gives my bosom anticipation for victory," helium added. "But my caput tells maine that erstwhile wide sidesplitting carries nary punishment, and erstwhile the authorities possesses capable bullets, guns and determination to suppress it, adjacent if it means sidesplitting millions, past triumph would necessitate a miracle."