Instant View: Feb payrolls growth picks up, along with jobless rate

Reuters

Fri, Mar 7, 2025, 6:24 AM 3 min read

(Reuters) - U.S. occupation maturation picked up successful February and the unemployment complaint edged up to 4.1%, but increasing uncertainty implicit commercialized argumentation and heavy national authorities spending cuts could erode the labour market's resilience successful the months ahead.

The less-than-expected betterment successful occupation maturation brought small alleviation to investors rattled by tariff-related marketplace turbulence.

Nonfarm payrolls accrued by 151,000 jobs past period aft rising by a downwardly revised 125,000 successful January, the Labor Department's said connected Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing by 160,000 jobs aft a antecedently reported 143,000 summation successful January. The emergence successful the unemployment complaint was from 4.0% successful January.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis turned 0.23% lower, pointing to a anemic unfastened connected Wall Street

BONDS: The output connected benchmark U.S. 10-year notesfell to 4.225%, the two-year enactment output fell to 3.908%FOREX: The dollar scale extended little and was disconnected 0.55% and the euro somewhat extended a summation to basal up -0.7%

COMMENTS:

BEN MCMILLAN, PRINCIPAL AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, IDX INSIGHTS, TAMPA, FLORIDA via text

"It came successful beauteous overmuch successful enactment crossed the board. The marketplace volition invited that news. No evident reddish flags “under the hood” either. It's bully quality for equities aft yesterday . . . The marketplace is pricing successful 3 cuts (which I deliberation is optimistic)…this suggests Fed mightiness thin towards less than that."

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN

"Not to beryllium a Debbie Downer, but determination was a shockingly ample leap successful the fig of radical moving portion clip due to the fact that of economical reasons and a ample summation successful the fig of aggregate jobholders. While national employment fell 10,000, the survey was done anterior to the ample layoffs, truthful we are apt to spot authorities serving arsenic a resistance connected payroll growth. At slightest the mean duration of unemployment has ticked lower, truthful hopefully those individuals volition rapidly find gainful employment.

"The marketplace is backmost to pricing successful 3 complaint cuts successful 2025, but I wouldn’t slope connected the Fed sending immoderate dovish signals anytime soon. With the unemployment complaint astatine 4.1% and ostentation inactive supra target, they person nary crushed to alteration their messaging yet."

GENNADIY GOLDBERG, HEAD OF US RATES STRATEGY, TD SECURITIES, NEW YORK

“It's not rather the softening successful economical maturation that a batch of investors were expecting based connected immoderate of the caller data. So, if you look astatine caller information astonishment indicators, they're truly plummeting, which fanned expectations of sharply slower economical growth. The payroll fig tells a much mean story. We're looking astatine a three-month mean of astir 200K, a six-month mean of astir 191K. So, wide payroll maturation is inactive comparatively okay, adjacent though it's starting to amusement a small spot of softening astatine the edges. For the rates market, it remains to beryllium seen if this is anemic capable to proceed to thrust the rally, though there's going to beryllium a batch of caution earlier Chair Powell's remarks this afternoon.”