Inflation Soars to 3.3% in March: Prediction Markets Now See 63% Chance It Hits 4% in 2026

2 weeks ago 10

Eric Bleeker

Fri, April 10, 2026 astatine 11:17 AM CDT 7 min read

March ostentation information was released this morning, and it showed the user terms scale (CPI) rising 3.3%. That’s the highest ostentation speechmaking since April 2024.
However, ostentation readings excluding nutrient and vigor showed prices rising 2.6%. The bottommost line: today’s ostentation surge is astir wholly tied to rising vigor prices.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is the azygous determinant of whether ostentation moderates oregon accelerates, arsenic lipid terms swings from the struggle drove a 21.2% gasoline surge that accounts for astir three-quarters of March’s header CPI increase, and prediction markets terms a 63% accidental ostentation exceeds 4% successful 2026 if vigor prices reignite.
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March 2026 conscionable delivered the hottest ostentation people successful astir 2 years, and prediction markets are already pricing a 63% accidental that ostentation exceeds 4% earlier the twelvemonth is out. For investors holding equities and fixed income, the adjacent fewer months hinge connected a azygous variable: whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds.

Let's dive into this morning's CPI people and what benignant of ostentation expectations prediction markets are present pricing in.

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The user terms scale accrued a seasonally adjusted 0.9% successful March, pushing the yearly ostentation complaint to 3.3% — the highest since April 2024 and up sharply from 2.4% successful February. Both the monthly and yearly figures came successful enactment with the Dow Jones consensus, which is wherefore markets are mostly shrugging disconnected CPI information today. As of noon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down .5% portion the S&P 500 is down .15%.

The culprit for March's emergence is what you'd expect: rising lipid prices. Energy prices surged 10.9%, with gasoline surging 21.2% and accounting for astir three-quarters of the header terms increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Iran conflict, which began astatine the extremity of February, was the superior driver.

Beneath the headline, the representation was considerably calmer. Core CPI (which excludes nutrient and energy) roseate conscionable 0.2% for the period and 2.6% from a twelvemonth ago, some 0.1% beneath forecast, indicating underlying ostentation remained contained. Services excluding vigor roseate 0.2% for the period and 3% from a twelvemonth ago. Shelter was up 0.3% monthly and 3% annually. That tied its lowest level since August 2021.

Food prices were unchanged for the period and up 2.7% annually. Food astatine location fell 0.2%. Eggs fell 3.4% successful March and person tumbled 44.7% implicit the past year. Airline fares jumped 2.7% and apparel climbed 1%, reflecting tariff and war-related pressures.

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