Home price increases slow: What it means for buyers

00:00 Speaker A

According to the Intercontinental Exchanges, April 2025 owe monitor, the complaint of location terms increases slowed to 2.2% with 95% of markets showing immoderate betterment successful affordability from the aforesaid twelvemonth ago, aforesaid clip a twelvemonth ago. Joining maine present for much connected the study and the authorities of the lodging market, we've got Andy Walden, Intercontinental Exchange caput of owe and lodging marketplace research. Andy, large to spot you erstwhile again. What are your biggest takeaways from this report?

00:37 Andy Walden

Yeah, I deliberation it's not lone slowing successful wide location terms growth, which we've seen implicit the past 3 months, you've started to spot immoderate divergence successful the condo marketplace that I deliberation is truly interesting. In fact, our highest enhanced location terms scale is showing condo prices marginally down from the aforesaid clip past year. It's the archetypal clip that we've seen that since 2012. And truthful you're seeing slower wide location terms maturation successful the immense bulk of markets crossed the state and a small spot of easing successful condo prices arsenic well.

01:10 Speaker A

So, condo prices did autumn successful respective markets. What bash you marque of that trend?

01:17 Andy Walden

Yeah, I deliberation there's a fewer antithetic reasons for it. First of all, if you look astatine the slowing maturation wide successful the lodging market, it has to bash with rising inventory levels. You're seeing them astir universally crossed the state from the aforesaid clip past year. When you look astatine condo prices, I deliberation a mates things basal out. First of all, the condo marketplace typically is simply a small spot much volatile than azygous household residences. And truthful erstwhile the marketplace heats up, you spot a small spot of overgrowth successful that condo space. When the wide lodging marketplace starts to chill off, you spot a small spot much softening among condos. And past you commencement to look astatine immoderate of the multi-family completions that came to marketplace past year, a small spot much vacancy connected the flat side, immoderate much units being enactment into the market, starring to softer condo terms dynamics retired determination arsenic well.

02:18 Speaker A

And truthful investors close present look to beryllium pricing successful 5 complaint cuts implicit the people of 2025. So, a batch of that depends upon what the Fed sees successful the data, but bash you deliberation that we'll spot importantly little owe rates by the extremity of the year?

02:39 Andy Walden

That's a bully question. We've already started to spot them travel down a small spot implicit the past fewer days. So if you look astatine loans flowing done Ice's origination channels, you look astatine accepted 30-year fixed complaint mortgages, you've already seen that complaint travel down to astir 6.5% connected Friday. If you look astatine the Ice Futures market, which is wherever we similar to look to spot benignant of wherever futures for owe involvement rates are being priced in, if you look astatine that arsenic of Friday, it was inferring that the marketplace is anticipating owe rates to travel down into the 6.25% scope by September. And so, already immoderate humble improvements successful owe rates that we've seen with immoderate potential, astatine slightest being priced in, successful the adjacent word horizon.

03:31 Speaker A

So, bash you deliberation that the slower terms maturation and perchance little rates volition unstick, unstuck, I cognize it's not bully English, but sometimes it's bully preaching, arsenic my pastor would say, volition that yet unlock immoderate of the lodging market?

04:00 Andy Walden

Yeah, I mean, erstwhile you look astatine the, erstwhile you look astatine the, the bargain side, right, uh, imaginable location buyers retired determination successful the market, you've seen them ebb and travel close on with involvement rates. And truthful erstwhile involvement rates person improved, affordability has improved. You've seen a small spot much request retired determination successful the market. We've already started to spot the semblance of that this spring. In fact, erstwhile you look astatine February and March, you're seeing astir a small implicit 5% much owe applications retired determination aboriginal this outpouring than what we were seeing astatine the aforesaid clip past year. When you look astatine location sellers retired there, you're besides seeing, uh, not lone much caller operation successful caller years than we've seen successful the past, but erstwhile you look astatine existing homeowners and their willingness to enactment their location up for sale, you've seen immoderate betterment determination this twelvemonth versus past twelvemonth arsenic well. So a twelvemonth ago, we were seeing 25% deficit, 25% less existing homeowners listing their homes for sale. Early this year, it's been astir a 15% deficit. So inactive not arsenic galore arsenic you would traditionally see, but becoming unstuck a small spot if you will.

05:20 Speaker A

Certainly. And what are immoderate of the, the markets that you're starting to spot elements of that instrumentality signifier in?

05:28 Andy Walden

Yeah, it's truly the sunbelt portion of the state is the 1 that jumps retired the most, right? It's wherever you're seeing much inventory travel to market. It's wherever you're seeing that proviso get backmost to oregon supra pre-pandemic levels. It's besides the country wherever you're seeing softer terms dynamics, and successful immoderate cases location prices person travel down from the aforesaid clip past year. In the other extremity of that spectrum, the areas that are inactive dealing with precise heavy inventory deficits, the northeast, the midwest regions of the country, and unsurprisingly, that's wherever you're seeing firmer location prices.

06:07 Speaker A

Andy, bully to talk with you erstwhile again. Thanks for taking the time.

06:11 Andy Walden

You bet. Thanks for having me.