Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ): A Bull Case Theory

15 hours ago 2

Ricardo Pillai

Sat, February 7, 2026 astatine 10:16 AM CST 3 min read

We came crossed a bullish thesis connected Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. connected Vasileios Prassas’s Substack by Vasileios. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected HTZ. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.'s stock was trading astatine $4.9400 arsenic of February 5th. HTZ’s trailing and guardant P/E were 23.71 and 11.78 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Hertz Global (HTZ) is the third-largest car rental institution globally, operating successful a highly consolidated manufacture wherever the apical 3 players power astir 95% of the market. Despite its iconic marque and scale, capitalist sentiment has collapsed owed to fears of excessive leverage, antagonistic escaped currency flow, and echoes of its 2020 bankruptcy, leaving the banal trading astatine conscionable 2–4x normalized earnings.

At its core, Hertz functions little similar a accepted rental institution and much similar an plus manager: it buys vehicles astatine scale, monetizes them done rentals, and yet sells them, making fleet economics, depreciation, and residual values the superior drivers of profitability. Small swings successful utilized car prices tin truthful person an outsized interaction connected currency flow.

Following its post-bankruptcy exit successful 2021, Hertz initially benefited from surging utilized car prices, but misallocated those windfall currency flows into assertive stock buybacks and an ill-timed, large-scale propulsion into electrical vehicles. Falling utilized car prices and Tesla’s accelerated terms cuts forced Hertz to merchantability vehicles astatine losses, instrumentality write-downs, and get further non-vehicle debt, pushing escaped currency travel profoundly negative. These issues were compounded by an overly accelerated fleet rotation.

Looking ahead, the thesis hinges connected these mistakes being mostly down the company. The fleet has present been rotated astatine much tenable prices, EV vulnerability has been rightsized, and losses person been recognized. As a result, currency travel has begun to stabilize, with EBITDA turning affirmative and seasonal de-fleeting expected to thrust further deleveraging.

Liquidity remains ample, large indebtedness maturities are pushed retired to 2028–2029, and rising utilized car prices supply further support. Even nether blimpish assumptions, Hertz appears susceptible of breaking even, portion a normalization successful operations could unlock important upside, mounting the signifier for a meaningful rerating if execution holds.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (HTZ) by Bill Ackman successful May 2025, which highlighted improving manufacture structure, solution of Tesla overexposure, an operational turnaround, and leverage-driven upside. HTZ’s banal terms has depreciated by astir 30% since our coverage. Vasileios Prassas shares a akin presumption but emphasizes Hertz’s asset-management economics, fleet rotation, and currency travel stabilization.