Here's Why I Wouldn't Touch Rivian With a 10-Foot Pole

• Rivian is reeling aft the EV taxation recognition went away.

• EV income were declining earlier then.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Rivian Automotive ›

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) received a batch of fanfare starring up to its 2021 IPO, but the banal has since crashed by astir 80%. The luxury electrical conveyance (EV) shaper doesn't person the aforesaid clout arsenic Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and it faces respective headwinds that suggest aboriginal marketplace underperformance.

While Tesla is the starring EV banal and is tapping into caller ventures similar humanoid robots and cyber cabs nether Elon Musk's leadership, Rivian doesn't person arsenic galore opportunities. Its breadstuff and food -- EV income -- volition besides apt instrumentality a large deed successful 2026. Here's wherefore Rivian banal doesn't look bully for semipermanent investors.

The U.S. EV taxation recognition was a large inducement that fueled the request for electrical vehicles. This taxation recognition gave radical a monetary inducement to bargain EVs. However, that taxation recognition expired connected Sept. 30, 2025, and it had an contiguous effect connected the full industry.

Rivian conveyance deliveries dropped sharply successful the 4th quarter, going from 14,183 successful Q4 2024 to 9,745 successful Q4 2025. However, Rivian was losing crushed earlier the taxation recognition went away, with full-year accumulation and transportation numbers some down twelvemonth implicit year. While the taxation credit's expiration made things worse, the institution inactive would person ended with year-over-year transportation declines if the taxation recognition had remained intact.

This slowdown isn't a blip. It remains a structural portion of Rivian's existent concern model. EVs arsenic a full are losing momentum, with Tesla besides delivering less vehicles twelvemonth implicit year.

Some Rivian bulls whitethorn reason that the luxury EV shaper is backmost aft delivering 78% year-over-year gross maturation successful the 3rd quarter. That fig looks bully connected the surface, but it reflects buyers rushing to bargain Rivian vehicles close earlier the EV taxation recognition expired. Deliveries instantly dropped twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth erstwhile that taxation recognition expired, demonstrating that Q3 was a fluke alternatively of an indicator of the company's future.

Rivian makes immoderate wealth from software, and that conception of the concern is increasing quickly. However, automobile income inactive correspond much than 70% of full sales. Furthermore, bundle income beryllium connected radical having Rivian vehicles already. If automobile income dilatory down, bundle gross volition besides decelerate.

The company's presumption arsenic a luxury EV shaper whitethorn besides enactment against it. As people's wallets get tighter, much radical are looking for utilized cars and entry-level caller models. Decreased fiscal incentives for EVs and a penchant toward affordable vehicles contiguous a treble whammy for Rivian.