GORDON SONDLAND: Trump's realpolitik may be the only way to end the Ukraine war

For 3 years, the Washington overseas argumentation constitution has insisted that determination is lone 1 acceptable result successful Ukraine: full triumph implicit Russia achieved done relentless subject aid, indefinite fiscal support, and escalation readiness careless of the risks. But strategy and morality are not ever the aforesaid happening — and existent enactment demands confronting world arsenic it exists, not arsenic we privation it to be.

I constitute this not arsenic an world oregon pundit, but arsenic idiosyncratic who worked astatine the halfway of this conflict. As U.S. ambassador to the European Union during the archetypal Trump administration, President Donald Trump tasked maine with bringing Europe into alignment—truly into alignment—behind Ukraine. 

That meant ending the EU’s habitual double-game: proclaiming solidarity with Kyiv portion enriching Moscow done vigor purchases and dragging its feet connected superior sanctions. I saw firsthand however Europe’s hesitation and transactional attack sent Moscow precisely the incorrect message. It told President Vladimir Putin the West was divided, unserious and yet unwilling to sacrifice comfortableness for principle. That cognition was portion of his calculus.

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The uncomfortable information is that the United States is person to strategical exhaustion than our rhetoric admits. Europe’s defence industries stay underbuilt. American stockpiles are finite. And portion Russia has paid a staggering price, it has not collapsed, surrendered, oregon reversed course. Worse, each escalation increases the probability of thing unthinkable: a hopeless Kremlin resorting to tactical atomic weapons. That would not beryllium "just different step" connected the escalatory ladder; it would fundamentally shatter planetary stability.

Against that background, the Trump administration’s instinct to question a quasi-business solution is not weakness. It is classical realpolitik—recognition that the occupation of American enactment is to maximize U.S. security, economical leverage, and strategical flexibility portion minimizing existential risk.

Business leaders cognize what Washington excessively often does not: the cleanable woody seldom exists. The question is not whether we tin execute a morally axenic resolution; it is whether we tin fastener successful outcomes that are measurably amended for American interests—and for Ukraine—than a perpetual, bleeding stalemate.

A negotiated settlement, backed by enforceable conditions and leverage, could bash precisely that.

First, a colony tin supply Ukraine with a bespoke information guarantee—credible capable to deter renewed aggression but structured to debar NATO Article 5 entanglement. This isn’t a vague promise; it is simply a declaration with wide show terms. The U.S. warrant would basal arsenic agelong arsenic Russia adheres to its commitments. But if Russia violates the agreement, the snapback provisions would trigger instantly—not months later, not aft diplomatic waffling—immediately unlocking full-scale U.S. and NATO enactment for Ukraine, including violative weapons, precocious aerial defense, training, and quality integration.

President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shingle hands astatine a quality league pursuing a gathering astatine Trump’s Mar-a-Lago nine connected December 28, 2025, successful Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

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Just arsenic important, the consequences of Russian cheating would beryllium explicit, not theoretical:

If Moscow breaks the deal, the United States would reserve the enactment to openly backmost Ukraine successful retaking each inch of territory—up to and including restoration to its pre-2014 borders. Moscow would cognize this going in. Deterrence works champion erstwhile penalties are unmistakable.

And crucially, this would each beryllium public. No much pretending, hedging, oregon quiescent back-channel shipments. The world—and Russia—would cognize that renewed aggression automatically and lawfully unleashes overwhelming Western support, with the U.S. starring confidently and unapologetically. That clarity is simply a deterrent successful itself.

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Equally important, this operation protects U.S. sovereignty successful the agreement. If Ukraine violates its obligations, the American warrant becomes void astatine our sole discretion. Not a bureaucratic process. Not a committee vote. The United States decides. That means Ukraine has each inducement to support subject and dainty the statement not arsenic a blank check, but arsenic a almighty concern grounded successful responsibility.

Second, a negotiated woody tin make tangible U.S. economical advantage. Ukraine holds minerals and uncommon earths indispensable to American industry, nationalist security, and technological supremacy. China knows this. Russia knows this. Only Washington’s aged defender pretends assets power is not strategical policy. A structured statement ensuring privileged U.S. entree strengthens manufacturing, vigor resilience, and economical security.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy listens to U.S. President Donald Trump, aft Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed willingness to assistance Ukraine "succeed," during a property league astatine Trump's Mar-a-Lago club, successful Palm Beach, Florida, connected December 28, 2025.  (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

Third, a colony tin wedge unfastened the narration betwixt Moscow and Beijing. Right now, the warfare has pushed Russia wholly into China’s arms. That alignment is atrocious for the United States and for planetary balance. A disciplined colony begins unwinding that dependency. America doesn’t request relationship with Moscow; it needs leverage implicit it. Realpolitik is astir advantage, not affection.

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Fourth, a woody tin compartmentalize strategical theaters. If Russia insists connected determination influence, the U.S. tin request reciprocal abstraction successful our hemisphere—particularly successful Venezuela, narcotics interdiction, and energy-linked transgression networks—reducing adversarial scope successful the Americas.

Critics volition shriek "Munich." They ever do. But Adolf Hitler was starring a rising ideological empire bent connected planetary conquest. Russia is simply a demographically and economically declining powerfulness seeking determination positioning. Brutal, yes—but not irrational. Mature powers negociate with rivals erstwhile negotiations nutrient superior outcomes.

Others assertion immoderate woody rewards aggression. That assumes deterrence is binary—victory oregon failure. In reality, deterrence is layered.

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A colony that leaves Russia bloodied, sanctioned, strategically constrained, and facing automatic, overwhelming Western subject escalation—potentially including U.S. enactment for Ukraine restoring its 2013 borders -- if it cheats is not a reward. It is simply a informing carved into pact stone.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian and fiscal realities matter. Endless warfare means endless dormant Ukrainians, shattered cities, and endless U.S. payer vulnerability with nary defined triumph condition. That whitethorn thrill deliberation tanks that ne'er combat wars, but it is not superior governance.

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Most importantly, a business-style colony introduces accountability—currently absent from Washington’s "as agelong arsenic it takes" mantra. Under a structured deal, compliance is measurable. Triggers are automatic. Support is not improvised—it is guaranteed. Enforcement is not theoretical—it is built in. And dissimilar today, America would nary longer request to susurration its involvement. It would enactment openly, decisively, and with pact authority.

The alternative? A forever-war with rising atomic risk, continued strategical drift, and deepening alignment betwixt Russia and China. That is not strategy. It is inertia dressed arsenic courage.

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Realpolitik does not wantonness values. It protects them intelligently. A disciplined, enforceable settlement—with wide snapback provisions benefiting some the U.S. and Ukraine; explicit authorization to openly limb Ukraine and perchance enactment afloat territorial restoration if Russia cheats; and a warrant revocable astatine America’s sole discretion if Ukraine violates terms—is not capitulation.

It is strategical control.

In geopolitics, arsenic successful business, the strongest subordinate is not the 1 who insists connected endless confrontation. It is the 1 who knows erstwhile to fight—and erstwhile to adjacent the deal.

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