GORDON CHANG: Trump can reshape the Middle East and outfox China with one stunning move

Israeli and Turkish warplanes skirmished implicit Syria this past weekend. 

Israel, successful bluish Syria, has been bombing militias affiliated with the authorities of Turkey. According to Turkish media sources, Ankara’s F-16s sent "warning messages" to the Israeli planes. 

Israel denied the reports of the aerial confrontation.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, said that the "Israeli attacks compromise the equilibrium successful the portion since the autumn of the Syrian regime." Bashar al-Assad fled Syria to Russia arsenic his totalitarian authorities fell successful aboriginal December. He has since been granted asylum there.   

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The caller aerial confrontation could spark a wider warfare and enactment an extremity to attempts by the erstwhile militant and Syria’s existent president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to reestablish stableness and determination his state person to the United States. 

Disruptive actors privation to instrumentality implicit Damascus. Erdogan, for instance, helped bring down Assad and present hopes to propulsion Syria into his orbit. China, which supported the horrific Assad authorities until the end, is present trying to power the caller authorities successful Damascus truthful it tin yet predominate that country.

FILE – Security forces loyal to the interim Syrian authorities thrust successful the backmost of a conveyance moving on a roadworthy successful Syria's occidental metropolis of Latakia connected March 9, 2025. Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa called for nationalist unity and bid connected March 9, amid increasing planetary backlash pursuing the sidesplitting of civilians on the country's seashore successful the worst unit since the overthrow of erstwhile president Bashar al-Assad. (OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

Sharaa is resisting Beijing’s attempts. "Syria is present led by a existent reformer," Jonathan Bass, who had extended discussions with Sharaa successful Damascus past week astir spiritual state and different topics, told me. 

"This is simply a captious infinitesimal successful Syria’s transition," Dr. Sharvan Ibesh of the Bahar Organization, a humanitarian NGO progressive successful Syria, told maine past week.

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Ibesh’s appraisal is surely correct. Before Sharaa tin execute anything, helium volition request to extremity the struggle successful his skies. There is lone 1 idiosyncratic who tin abstracted Israel, America’s semipermanent spouse successful the region, and Turkey, an progressively troublesome NATO ally. That person, of course, is President Donald Trump.

Why would Trump get involved? 

There are 2 main reasons. First, Sharaa wants commercialized and investment. This is an historical accidental for American business, which has been unopen retired of that information of the region. Syria is devastated aft decades of misrule and war, and Americans tin build, sell, and supply conscionable astir everything.

The 2nd crushed involves China. "Syria is up for grabs," Mouaz Moustafa of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a humanitarian radical progressive successful that country, said to me. "The Chinese proceed to propulsion hard to capable a vacuum, knowing that the longer the U.S. takes to travel on the higher the chances are that China volition economically inhabit Syria."

"We bash not privation to beryllium stuck with China being the lone prime for Syria erstwhile it comes to rebuilding our liberated country," says the Bahar Organization’s Ibesh.

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Dr. Haytham Albizem of Global Justice, a U.S.-based NGO, told maine that President Sharaa has not accepted Beijing’s persistent offers but "eventually helium volition shingle the manus that wants to assistance him rebuild the state helium leads if helium does not person immoderate alternative."

Bass, CEO of Argent LNG, confirms that Beijing has pressured Syrian officials to instrumentality its wealth but the Syrians person held retired due to the fact that of concerns astir the semipermanent effects of Chinese presence. Sharaa successful information told Bass helium wants to physique a "pluralistic society," successful different words, a federation not similar China but similar America.

Washington’s sanctions, enactment successful spot during the Assad years, forestall American involvement. Trump tin assistance them.

Trump volition beryllium successful Saudi Arabia adjacent week. He volition sojourn Riyadh connected May 13. Syrian officials are trying to docket a gathering betwixt the American president and Sharaa successful the Saudi superior to sermon U.S. companies entering Syria. 

"I privation to marque a woody with Donald Trump," Sharaa told Bass. "He’s the lone antheral I trust." 

"He is the lone antheral susceptible of fixing this region, bringing america together, 1 ceramic astatine a time," Sharaa added.

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"This is simply a infinitesimal erstwhile the United States can, for the archetypal clip successful decades, found vibrant commercialized and concern ties with Syria and thereby bring bid to the Middle East arsenic a whole," Bass says.

If, however, China takes implicit Syria, which borders Israel successful the Golan Heights, determination volition beryllium nary peace. Beijing afloat backed Iran’s October 7 battle connected the Jewish authorities with economic, diplomatic, propaganda, and weapons support. China volition likewise disrupt the portion from Syria if it gains power of Damascus.

"If China is entrenched successful Syria, it means Iran volition beryllium entrenched determination too," Bass says. "The stakes are precocious for America due to the fact that Israel would beryllium pressured by a China-Iran proxy straight connected 1 of its borders." 

That’s true, but America’s continued relation successful the portion raises a broader issue. "Does the USA privation to beryllium the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, successful astir each cases, bash not admit what we are doing?" Trump tweeted successful December 2018. 

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Obviously not. But Sharaa, arsenic helium told Bass, wants to marque Syria similar America, not with the American subject but with American goods, investment, and services. 

The accidental for the U.S. is historic.

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