Federal Reserve live coverage: Fed expected to hold rates steady, offer updated outlook amid Iran war

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Tue, March 17, 2026 astatine 7:54 AM CDT 1 min read

The Federal Reserve is wide expected to support involvement rates unchanged astatine the extremity of its two-day argumentation gathering this week, but markets volition beryllium intimately watching for signs of however the warfare successful Iran could impact the Fed's ostentation and economical maturation outlook.

The caller spike successful lipid prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, has complicated the Fed's picture, arsenic ostentation remains supra the cardinal bank's 2% people and the labour marketplace slows.

Traders present expect the Fed won't chopped rates until October oregon December, and the cardinal slope is wide expected to clasp rates dependable successful the 3.5%-3.75% scope connected Wednesday.

Along with its 2nd argumentation determination of the year, the Fed volition besides people its archetypal Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026, which volition see forecasts from Fed officials connected economical growth, inflation, and involvement rates for the coming years.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to underscore that the Fed volition stay connected clasp portion it monitors the lipid daze during his property league astatine 2:30 p.m. ET connected Wednesday, 1 of the past property conferences of his term.

Here are the latest updates and investigation connected the Fed's argumentation decision.

LIVE 1 update

Oil terms spike apt to support rates connected clasp but deepen divisions among Fed officials this week

The discourse for the Federal Reserve's two-day March argumentation gathering has changed importantly successful the past 2 weeks, arsenic the warfare successful Iran shows small motion of moderating and lipid prices stay astir $100 per barrel.

Although the cardinal slope is expected to enactment the people and support involvement rates unchanged successful a scope of 3.5% to 3.75%, uncertainty astir the duration of the struggle has raised questions astir the way of argumentation for the remainder of the year.

As my workfellow Jennifer Schonberger notes, the lipid daze from the Iran warfare could deepen divisions wrong the cardinal slope connected the ostentation outlook.

She writes that a fewer weeks ago, the large statement wrong the Fed was however acold rates are from neutral — a level connected the Fed’s benchmark argumentation complaint designed to neither boost nor dilatory economical growth. Now the representation is changing and volition beryllium defined mostly by however agelong the warfare successful Iran lasts and however agelong precocious lipid prices linger.

Officials volition merchandise the quarterly “dot plot” — a graph that charts however galore involvement complaint cuts each Fed subordinate sees for this twelvemonth and next. But economists accidental they are giving little value to the projections, fixed the uncertainty astir the duration and interaction of the war.

Read much astir what to expect astatine this March's Fed gathering here.