ExxonMobil Is Up 44% and Retail Investors Are Still Missing the Point

Amidst a increasing planetary situation heavy involving the terms of oil, shares of ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) are trading astatine $149.78 arsenic of Wednesday, up 24% year-to-date and 39% implicit the past year. Retail sentiment connected Reddit has shifted from a monthly mean people of 37.875 (bearish) to a play people of 53.5 (neutral) implicit the past week, tracking the surge successful crude lipid prices driven by Middle East tensions. WTI crude has climbed from $60.46 connected January 26 to $71.13 arsenic of March 2.

ExxonMobil (XOM) reported a stock terms of $149.78 with +25.31% YTD maturation and a neutral societal sentiment people of 53.5 arsenic of March 4, 2026. This sentiment is chiefly driven by rising crude lipid prices linked to Middle East tensions.

Polymarket traders are pricing an 80% probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, with the full-year marketplace astatine 84% likelihood done December 2026. Citigroup raised its XOM terms people from $118 to $150 connected March 2, and the banal present trades supra the existent expert statement people of $144.25.

READ: The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 just named his apical 10 AI stocks

The top-driving station this week, "Why are lipid prices up but lipid stocks down close now?" connected r/stocks, has drawn 109 upvotes and 67 comments and reflects increasing skepticism that the lipid spike translates into durable equity gains.

Why are lipid prices up but lipid stocks down close now?
by u/[OP] successful stocks

"Oil companies hedge their accumulation and fastener successful prices months successful advance, truthful a abrupt spike doesn't instantly travel done to earnings. The marketplace is pricing successful mean reversion earlier the adjacent quarterly study adjacent drops." — u/[OP], r/stocks

Earlier successful February, "The existent bubble is successful Big Oil, NOT successful Big Tech" connected r/stockmarket peaked astatine 150 upvotes and 69 comments with sentiment scores successful the 22-31 scope crossed 9 consecutive information points. What retail treatment has missed entirely: ExxonMobil's AI infrastructure investments, its supercomputer deployment with NVIDIA and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, oregon its Mobil Lithium inaugural targeting EV artillery proviso concatenation introduction by 2027.