Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN): A Bull Case Theory

We came crossed a bullish thesis on Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. on Lux Opes Research’s Substack. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis on ZGN. Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.'s share was trading astatine $10.03 as of February 5th. ZGN’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.21 and 21.60 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., unneurotic with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and different accessories worldwide. ZGN closed 2025 with a 4th fourth that highlighted improving marque momentum, led by its halfway Zegna label.

Group revenues for the twelvemonth reached €1.92 billion, with Q4 income of €591 cardinal broadly successful enactment with expectations. Organic maturation astatine the Zegna marque accelerated to 7.4% successful Q4, up from 5.6% successful Q3 and 2.6% successful the archetypal half, driven by retail and direct-to-consumer sales, which grew implicit 10% successful the quarter.

This reflects Zegna’s ongoing repositioning toward the high-end market, wherever request has remained resilient. The US and Middle East proceed to beryllium the strongest regions, Europe is contributing much consistently, while Greater China remains a weakness with income down astir 5%, though trends improved sequentially. At the radical level, momentum is much mixed. Tom Ford Fashion experienced a slowdown successful retail growth, and wholesale remained a resistance crossed each brands, with full wholesale income down treble digits successful Q4, limiting group-wide integrated maturation to 4.6%.

Foreign speech headwinds further constrained reported maturation and pressured margins, contempt improving operating trends. Looking into 2026, absorption expects wholesale to proceed shrinking, peculiarly for Thom Browne and Tom Ford, portion retail execution remains the focus. FX effects are expected to bounds borderline enlargement adjacent if volumes prime up.

Overall, the concern lawsuit rests connected Zegna’s accelerating traction successful the high-end segment, portion Tom Ford and Thom Browne require further work. The radical is delivering amended top-line prime 4th aft quarter, with profitability inactive lagging but apt to amended arsenic marque repositioning and retail maturation summation further traction, making existent trends supportive of the semipermanent story.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) by DB_Silver_Fox in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s vertically integrated model, iconic brands, beardown margins, and charismatic escaped currency travel output arsenic cardinal drivers of semipermanent growth. ZGN’s banal terms has appreciated by astir 28% since our coverage. Lux Opes Research shares a akin thesis but emphasizes caller marque momentum and accelerating retail growth.