‘Don’t see a major war with India, but have to be ready’: Pakistan ex-NSA

Islamabad, Pakistan – Eleven days aft gunmen changeable 26 radical dormant successful the scenic vale of Baisaran successful Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam, India and Pakistan basal connected the brink of a subject standoff.

The nuclear-armed neighbours person each announced a bid of tit-for-tat steps against the different since the onslaught connected April 22, which India has implicitly blamed Pakistan for, adjacent arsenic Islamabad has denied immoderate relation successful the killings.

India has suspended its information successful the Indus Waters Treaty that enforces a water-sharing mechanics Pakistan depends on. Pakistan has threatened to locomotion distant from the 1972 Simla Agreement that committed some nations to recognising a erstwhile ceasefire enactment arsenic a Line of Control (LoC) – a de-facto borderline – betwixt them successful Kashmir, a disputed portion that they each partially power but that they some assertion successful its entirety. Both nations person besides expelled each other’s citizens and scaled backmost their diplomatic missions.

Despite a ceasefire statement being successful spot since 2021, the existent escalation is the astir superior since 2019, erstwhile India launched aerial strikes connected Pakistani ungraded pursuing an onslaught connected Indian soldiers successful Pulwama, successful Indian-administered Kashmir, that killed 40 troops. In caller days, they person traded occurrence crossed the LoC.

And the portion is present connected edge, amid increasing expectations that India mightiness motorboat a subject cognition against Pakistan this clip too.

Yet, some countries person besides engaged their diplomatic partners. On Wednesday, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, urging some sides to find a way to de-escalation. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth called his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, connected Thursday to condemn the onslaught and offered “strong support” to India.

Sharif met envoys from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, 3 of Pakistan’s closest allies, to question their support, and urged the ambassadors of the 2 Gulf nations to “impress upon India to de-escalate and defuse tensions”.

To recognize however Pakistani strategists who person worked connected ties with India presumption what mightiness hap next, Al Jazeera spoke with Moeed Yusuf, who served arsenic Pakistan’s nationalist information advisor (NSA) betwixt May 2021 and April 2022 nether erstwhile Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Prior to his relation arsenic NSA, Yusuf besides worked arsenic a peculiar advisor to Khan connected matters related to nationalist information starting successful December 2019, 4 months aft the Indian government, nether Prime Minister Narendra Modi, revoked the peculiar presumption of Indian-administered Kashmir.

Based successful Lahore, Yusuf is presently the vice chancellor of a backstage assemblage and has authored and edited respective books connected South Asia and determination security. His astir caller book, Brokering Peace successful Nuclear Environments: US Crisis Management successful South Asia, was published successful 2018.

Al Jazeera: How bash you measure moves made by some sides truthful acold successful the crisis?

Moeed Yusuf: India and Pakistan person for agelong struggled successful presumption of situation management. They don’t person a bilateral situation absorption mechanism, which is the cardinal concern.

The fig 1 situation absorption instrumentality utilized by some sides has been the reliance connected 3rd parties, with the thought being that they would effort and restrain them some and assistance de-escalate the crisis.

This time, I consciousness the occupation India has tally into is that they followed the aged playbook, but the person of the astir important 3rd party, the United States, didn’t amusement up to enactment India.

It appears that they person truthful acold taken a neutral and a hands-off position, arsenic indicated by President Donald Trump fewer days ago. (Trump said that helium knew the leaders of some India and Pakistan, and believed that they could resoluteness the situation connected their own.)

Pakistan’s effect is straight linked to the Indian response, and that is historically however it has been, with some countries going tit-for-tat with each other. This clip too, a fig of punitive steps person been announced.

The occupation is that these are casual to acceptable into question but precise hard to reverse, adjacent erstwhile things get better, and they whitethorn privation to bash so.

Unfortunately, successful each situation betwixt them, the retaliatory steps are becoming much and much substantive, arsenic successful this case, India has decided to clasp Indus Water Treaty successful abeyance, which is amerciable arsenic the pact provides nary specified provision.

Al Jazeera: Do you judge a onslaught is imminent and if some sides are indicating preparedness for a showdown?

Yusuf: In specified moments, it is intolerable to say. Action from India remains plausible and possible, but the model wherever imminence was a existent interest has passed.

What usually happens successful crises is that countries prime up unit oregon logistics movements, oregon their allies pass them, oregon they trust connected crushed quality to find what mightiness happen. Sometimes, these tin beryllium misread and tin pb the violative broadside to spot an accidental to enactment wherever nary exists oregon the antiaircraft broadside to judge an onslaught whitethorn beryllium coming erstwhile it isn’t the case.

Pakistan people has to amusement committedness to hole for immoderate eventuality. You don’t cognize what volition travel next, truthful you person to beryllium ready.

Having said that, I don’t deliberation we are going to spot a large war, but successful these circumstances, you tin ne'er predict, and 1 small misunderstanding oregon miscalculation tin pb to thing major.

Al Jazeera: How bash you spot the relation of 3rd parties specified arsenic the US, China and Gulf States successful this crisis, and however would you comparison it with erstwhile instances?

Yusuf: My past book, Brokering Peace (2018) was connected the third-party absorption successful Pakistan-India context, and this is specified a captious constituent for some arsenic they person internalised and built it into their calculus that a third-party state volition inevitably travel in.

The thought is that a third-party mediator volition measurement in, and the 2 nations volition hold to halt due to the fact that that is what they truly want, alternatively of escalating further.

And the person of the battalion of third-party countries is the United States since the Kargil warfare of 1999. (Pakistani forces crossed the LoC to effort to instrumentality power of strategical heights successful Ladakh’s Kargil, but India yet managed to instrumentality backmost the territory. Then-US President Bill Clinton is credited with helping extremity that conflict.)

Everybody else, including China, yet backs the US position, which prioritises contiguous de-escalation supra each other during the crisis.

This changed somewhat successful the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Pulwama situation erstwhile the US leaned heavy connected India’s side, possibly unwittingly adjacent emboldening them to enactment successful 2019.

(In 2016, Indian troops launched a cross-border “surgical strike” that New Delhi said targeted equipped fighters readying to onslaught India, aft gunmen killed 19 Indian soldiers successful an onslaught connected an service basal successful Uri, Indian-administered Kashmir. Three years later, Indian combatant jets bombed what New Delhi said were bases of “terrorists” successful Balakot, successful Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, aft the onslaught connected the Indian subject convoy successful which 40 soldiers were killed. India and Pakistan past engaged successful an aerial dogfight, and an Indian aviator was captured and subsequently returned.)

However, this time, you person a president successful the White House who turned astir and told some Pakistan and India to fig it retired themselves.

This, I think, has wounded India much than Pakistan, due to the fact that for Pakistan, they had discounted the anticipation of important US enactment successful caller years, reasoning they person gotten excessively adjacent to India owed to their strategical relationship.

But India would person been hoping for the Americans to enactment their ft down and unit Pakistan, which did not precisely materialise. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s telephone telephone again is playing down the middle, wherever they are telling some the countries to get retired of war.

So, what they person done has, oddly enough, inactive played a relation successful holding India backmost truthful far, since India didn’t (so far) consciousness arsenic emboldened to instrumentality enactment arsenic they whitethorn person during Pulwama successful 2019.

Gulf countries person played a much progressive relation than before. China, too, has made a connection of restraint.

Al Jazeera: How has Pakistan’s narration with India evolved successful caller years?

Yusuf: There has been a oversea alteration successful the narration betwixt the 2 countries. When I was successful office, contempt superior problems and India’s unilateral moves successful Kashmir successful 2019, we saw a ceasefire statement connected the Line of Control arsenic good arsenic back-channel talks.

We person tried to determination up and trim India’s inducement to destabilise Pakistan, but I deliberation India has mislaid that accidental owed to its ain intransigence, hubris and an ideological bent that continues to unit them to demean and endanger Pakistan.

That has led to a alteration successful Pakistan arsenic well, wherever the enactment is present convinced that the argumentation of restraint did not deliver, and India has misused and abused Pakistan’s offers for dialogue.

The presumption present is that if India doesn’t privation to talk, Pakistan shouldn’t beryllium pleading either. If India does scope out, we volition apt respond, but determination isn’t immoderate desperation successful Pakistan astatine all.

This is not a bully spot to beryllium for either country. I person agelong believed and argued that yet for Pakistan to get to wherever we privation to spell economically, and for India to get to wherever it says it wants to spell regionally, it cannot hap unless some amended their relationship. For now, though, with the existent Indian attitude, unfortunately, I spot small hope.

Al Jazeera: Do you expect immoderate nonstop India-Pakistan talks astatine immoderate level during oregon aft this crisis?

Yes – I don’t cognize erstwhile it volition be, oregon who volition it beryllium done oregon with, but I deliberation 1 of the cardinal lessons Indians could astir apt locomotion distant with erstwhile each this is implicit is that attempting to isolate Pakistan isn’t working.

Indus Water Treaty successful abeyance? Simla Agreement’s imaginable suspension? These are large decisions, and the 2 countries volition request to speech to benignant these out, and I deliberation astatine immoderate constituent successful aboriginal they volition engage.

But I besides don’t deliberation that Pakistan volition marque a determination towards rapprochement, arsenic we person offered opportunities for dialogues truthful galore times precocious to nary avail. As I said, the temper successful Pakistan has besides firmed up connected this question.

Ultimately, the Indians request to fundamentally determine if they privation to speech oregon not. If they travel forth, I deliberation Pakistan volition inactive respond positively to it.

*This interrogation has been edited for clarity and brevity.