Cognex CFO Sees Early Factory Automation Recovery, Targets 25% EBITDA Run Rate by End of 2026

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Thu, February 19, 2026 astatine 9:27 AM CST 9 min read

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Cognex CFO Dennis Fehr said the institution is seeing aboriginal signs of a mill automation betterment — including beardown year-end Q4 2025 request and a better-than-expected semiconductor commencement to 2026 — but remains "cautious optimistic" pending much accordant information and seasonal/region-specific effects.
Cognex exited 2025 astatine a 20.7% adjusted EBITDA borderline and is targeting a 25% EBITDA tally complaint by end-2026, assuming mid-single-digit gross growth, astir $35–$40 cardinal of run-rate outgo reductions, and a starting gross baseline of astir $965 million (illustrative 2026 gross ~$1.015–$1.035B astatine 5%–7% growth).
The institution is emphasizing AI-driven penetration with its OneVision "Physical AI" attack — retraining borderline models successful the unreality and returning them to devices — which absorption says volition boost stock successful packaging and sphere advantages versus low-cost, cloud-dependent competitors.
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Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX) CFO Dennis Fehr said the institution is seeing aboriginal signs of an improving mill automation situation aft what helium described arsenic an unusually agelong downturn for instrumentality vision, portion besides emphasizing a multi-pronged strategy built connected marketplace penetration, AI-enabled products, and operating efficiency.

Fehr framed caller conditions arsenic a crisp opposition to 2021, which helium called an “extreme peak” during the COVID period, followed by a prolonged diminution successful 2022 done 2024. He said that three-year down rhythm was atypical for instrumentality vision, wherever down cycles person historically lasted 1 to 2 years.

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He noted that warehouse automation began showing maturation successful 2024 and continued into 2025. Factory automation—about 75% of Cognex’s business—did not amusement maturation until precocious 2025, with Fehr pointing to “really beardown year-end demand” successful the company’s mill automation extremity markets successful Q4 2025. He added that lawsuit sentiment improved, U.S. PMI was “ticking up,” and the institution saw a better-than-expected commencement successful semiconductor going into 2026.

Despite those signals, Fehr said the institution is not yet acceptable to telephone a sustained acceleration. He described Cognex’s stance arsenic “cautious optimistic,” noting the request for much accordant information points implicit clip and highlighting seasonal and determination factors that tin obscure early-year trends, including Lunar New Year impacts successful Asia and typically slower starts successful Europe.

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