China set for rapeseed meal shortage after 100% duty on top supplier Canada

By Ella Cao and Mei Mei Chu

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is apt to look a proviso shortage of rapeseed repast by the 3rd 4th of this twelvemonth arsenic Beijing's tariffs connected shipments from apical exporter Canada disrupt commercialized and arsenic alternate sources are improbable to marque up the deficit.

Rapeseed repast futures traded connected the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange person jumped much than 8% since Beijing announced connected Saturday a 100% retaliatory tariff connected imports of rapeseed repast and lipid from Canada effectual March 20.

"The instauration of this taxation summation argumentation instantly broke the archetypal commercialized balance," consultancy Mysteel wrote successful a note.

Chinese tariffs connected rapeseed repast and lipid came arsenic a astonishment to the manufacture which had been expecting higher duties alternatively connected the oilseed since Beijing started an anti-dumping probe successful September into shipments from Canada.

"Everybody was expecting authorities to denote duties connected rapeseed but we were each taken by astonishment erstwhile this announcement came connected lipid and meal," said 1 trader successful Singapore. "It is going to deed provender processors hard arsenic they were looking astatine importing larger volumes of Canadian repast alternatively of the oilseed."

Rapeseed is an oilseed harvest which is processed into lipid for cooking and a assortment of different products, including renewable fuels, portion the remaining rapeseed repast is utilized arsenic high-protein carnal provender and fertilizer.

China relies connected apical grower Canada for much than 70% of its rapeseed repast imports and astir each of the oilseed imports. Rapeseed is besides known arsenic canola.

For now, China has ample proviso of rapeseed, repast and lipid aft hefty imports successful the 4th fourth past year, buffering against an contiguous proviso shock.

But traders and analysts warned of an impending shortage by the 3rd 4th of this twelvemonth erstwhile the stockpile depletes.

LIMITED INTERNATIONAL AVAILABILITY

Chinese customs allows rapeseed repast imports from 11 countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Japan, Ethiopia, Australia, India and Belarus, providing options for alternate supplies.

But availability of the merchandise is constricted successful the planetary market.

In 2024, China imported 2.02 cardinal metric tons of the repast from Canada, followed by 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data.

Some of China's request could displacement to Russia, Ukraine oregon India, but these countries are improbable to beryllium capable to afloat fulfill Chinese appetite, traders and analysts said.

"No state truly has the standard Canada has," Ole Houe, manager of advisory services astatine IKON Commodities successful Sydney, said.