Cartels fear US retaliation as Trump-era pressure reshapes strategy: 'They fear the United States'

MEXICO CITY: Mexican cause cartels are progressively calculated successful their targeting decisions, often avoiding deliberately attacking American tourists and citizens retired of interest it could punctual intensified U.S. retaliation, according to experts.

Following past month's sidesplitting of Ruben "Nemesio" Oseguera Cervantes, known arsenic "El Mencho," the almighty person of the Mexican Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) White House property caput Karoline Leavitt joined 'Fox & Friends' and had a informing for the cause gangs: "The Mexican cause cartels cognize not to laic a digit connected a azygous American, oregon they volition wage terrible consequences nether this president."

Analysts accidental actions by President Donald Trump — including the designation of cartels arsenic overseas violent organizations and high-profile operations overseas specified arsenic the seizure of Nicolás Maduro and the sidesplitting of Ayatollah Khamenei successful Iran — person reinforced cartel perceptions of heightened risk. 

A worker stands defender by a charred conveyance aft it was acceptable connected occurrence successful Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, aft the decease of the person of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known arsenic "El Mencho." (AP Photo/Armando Solis) (AP Photo/Armando Solis)

Mexican cause cartels person agelong operated with a superior objective: support gross streams and debar actions that could trigger an overwhelming authorities response. Security analysts and erstwhile U.S. officials accidental that calculus often includes avoiding the deliberate targeting of American tourists and citizens wrong Mexico.

"Of course, cause cartels are acrophobic of President Trump since helium declared them violent organizations. That whitethorn beryllium 1 of the reasons wherefore they don't onslaught American citizens oregon tourists," cartel adept and activistic Elena Chávez told Fox News Digital.

She said the cartels "modernized and are well-informed astir what is happening, particularly due to the fact that they cognize determination are bounties connected their heads. That's wherefore they fearfulness the United States, adjacent much truthful since Trump became president and declared the cartels violent organizations. Of course, they show each of this and person radical who support the leaders informed astir however things are moving. The terms connected "El Mencho's" caput successful the United States was precise high."

Adding to the pressure, Trump spoke Saturday astatine the recently minted Shield of the Americas Summit successful Florida — a conjugation of 12 Latin American and Caribbean nations — coming unneurotic to instrumentality connected the cartels, among different policies. 

"We person to sound the hellhole retired of them due to the fact that they're getting worse. They're taking implicit their country. The cartels are moving Mexico. We can't person that. Too adjacent to us," Trump warned.

President Donald Trump, center, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, 2nd from left, Argentina's President Javier Milei, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, Guyana's President Mohamed Irfaan Ali, Costa Rica's President Rodrigo Chaves Robles, Bolivia's President Rodrigo Paz and Chile's President-elect Jose Antonio Kast airs for a household photograph during the Shield of the Americas Summit successful Doral, Fla., connected Saturday, March 7, 2026.  (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

"Right now, determination indispensable beryllium much than a cardinal Americans coming to Mexico to walk their vacations successful their homes. The cause cartels don't messiness with them oregon their homes. They cognize there's nary mode to debar a absorption from the United States if they messiness with its citizens. There's an unwritten regularisation that says you shouldn't messiness with American citizens; if you do, you'll endure retaliation from the United States. And adjacent much truthful present with the Trump administration" nationalist information adept and erstwhile Prosecutor of the Specialized Unit connected Organized Crime Samuel González told Fox News Digital.

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While high-profile killings of Americans successful Mexico person occurred, experts picture them arsenic isolated and liabilities to cartel interests alternatively than portion of a strategical campaign.

"There are respective precedents that show wherefore the cartels are peculiarly cautious not to interaction American citizens. One of the astir important was the Camarena case: the kidnapping, torture, and execution of DEA cause Enrique "Kiki" Camarena successful 1985 successful Mexico, perpetrated by leaders of the Guadalajara Cartel (Rafael Caro Quintero, Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo) successful retaliation for the demolition of "El Búfalo" marijuana ranch.

"This transgression marked a turning constituent successful the anti-drug narration betwixt Mexico and the U.S., prompting the DEA's "Operation Leyenda" to seizure those liable and revealing the complicity betwixt cause traffickers and high-ranking Mexican officials."

He added, "Another lawsuit is that of Agent Zapata. On February 15, 2011, gunmen from "Los Zetas"  cartel killed Special Agent Jaime Zapata of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE/HSI) and changeable Agent Victor Avila connected a road successful San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The execution triggered aggravated unit from the United States connected Mexico to combat the cartels, resulting successful the seizure of respective implicated Los Zetas members, including Julián Zapata Espinoza, alias "El Piolín.

"All these precedents are examples of wherefore the cartels learned that it is not successful their champion involvement to onslaught American citizens."

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Security experts accidental cartels intimately show governmental rhetoric successful Washington, peculiarly statements suggesting unilateral U.S. subject enactment oregon expanded cross-border operations. Public statement implicit labeling cartels arsenic violent groups has resurfaced successful caller years, with immoderate lawmakers arguing it would supply further tools to disrupt financing and logistics networks.

According to erstwhile national officials, cartels’ avoidance of deliberately targeting Americans is rooted little successful ideology and much successful hazard management. High-profile attacks connected U.S. citizens tin make aggravated media coverage, diplomatic strain, and accrued enforcement operations that disrupt trafficking routes.

Tourists locomotion past a burned store successful Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, Mexico, connected Feb. 24, 2026, aft cartel-linked unit erupted pursuing the decease of Jalisco New Generation cartel person Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes. (Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images)

Director General of the National Citizen Observatory, Francisco Rivas, told Fox News Digital: "Drug traffickers are overmuch much acrophobic of attacking a foreigner than a Mexican due to the fact that crimes against foreigners are prosecuted overmuch much severely by the Mexican authorities. The greater media unit erstwhile the unfortunate is simply a foreigner creates much inducement for the constabulary and prosecutors to analyse a kidnapping, extortion, disappearance, oregon homicide."

"In Mexico, much than 90% of intentional homicides and disappearances are related to radical who had circumstantial interaction with the cartels, chiefly for concern reasons. The problems tourists acquisition successful Mexico are the aforesaid arsenic they mightiness brushwood successful Miami, London, Rome, oregon Paris: robberies, fraud, and adjacent immoderate extortion, but these are proportionally marginal. Most crimes suffered successful Mexico are suffered by Mexicans, and astir convulsive crimes impact Mexican victims linked to cartels," helium said.

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While millions of Americans question to Mexico each twelvemonth without incident, instrumentality enforcement officials stress that transgression unit remains wide successful regions wherever cartels operate.

Authorities connected some sides of the borderline support that cartel decision-making is driven by fiscal incentives and endurance calculations. Actions perceived arsenic apt to trigger nonstop U.S. retaliation are wide viewed by analysts arsenic counterproductive to those interests.

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