Carnival Corporation to report Q1 earnings amid higher fuel costs, regional mix shifts

Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) is acceptable to study its archetypal 4th net connected March 27, with absorption expected to beryllium connected substance costs, near-term demand, and determination pricing trends, according to Bank of America analysts.

Carnival volition beryllium the archetypal unhedged, commodity-exposed question institution to study net successful the existent environment, making its guidance peculiarly noteworthy, the bank’s analysts highlighted.

Rising substance prices person prompted Bank of America to little its 2026 EPS and EBITDA forecasts, estimating a $650 cardinal simplification successful EBITDA and a $0.47 diminution successful EPS.

“While the duration of higher substance is unknown, we promote investors to look past the substance spike to 2027 forecasts, which could spot much normalized prices,” they wrote.

Carnival’s vulnerability to substance volatility is higher than immoderate peers, with a 10% determination successful substance prices perchance impacting Q1 2026 nett income by $37 cardinal and 2026 results by $145 million.

Regional trends and onboard spending volition besides beryllium intimately watched. Carnival’s Caribbean premix is expected to highest astatine 51% successful 1Q26 earlier averaging 30% for the remainder of the year. Europe and Alaska, accounting for 36% and 17% of later-quarter capacity, are further areas of focus, though the analysts suggested caller weakness astatine different cruise operators whitethorn beryllium circumstantial to those companies.

For the quarter, Bank of America forecasts Carnival’s EBITDA somewhat supra guidance astatine $1.26 billion, with EPS of $0.17, mostly successful enactment with statement expectations.

Constant-currency nett yields are projected to emergence 1.9%, portion nett cruise costs are expected to summation 5.2%, somewhat beneath guidance.

The steadfast reiterated its ‘Buy’ standing connected the banal with a $45 terms target, implying upside from existent levels of $26.