Canada stares down consequences of Trump tariff war: Job losses, grocery price hikes, possible recession

Canada is bracing for the fallout of President Donald Trump’s escalating commercialized war, with economists informing of spiking market prices, large occupation losses and adjacent a imaginable recession if threatened U.S. tariffs instrumentality effect.

The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for astir two-thirds of Canadian imports and receiving implicit 70% of its exports. But nether Trump’s caller "liberation day" tariffs – 25% connected Canadian goods and 10% connected vigor – Ottawa present faces an economical gut punch that could ripple crossed cardinal provinces, industries and its nationalist predetermination campaign.

Trump has repeatedly blasted what helium calls "unfair" commercialized practices, citing Canada’s commercialized imbalance with the U.S. to warrant the sweeping tariffs.

"This is the opening of liberation time successful America," Trump said past week. "We’re going to complaint countries for doing concern successful our state and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a batch of things that they’ve been taking implicit the years. They’ve taken truthful overmuch retired of our country, person and foe. And, frankly, person has been oftentimes overmuch worse than foe."

TRUMP'S 11TH WEEK IN OFFICE SET TO FOCUS ON TARIFFS AS PRESIDENT TOUTS 'LIBERATION DAY'

Canadians protestation U.S. tariffs and different policies of President Donald Trump successful Toronto connected March 22, 2025. (REUTERS/Carlos Osorio)

Increased tariffs could mean that Americans volition spot higher terms tags connected everything ranging from fertilizer and oil, vehicles and machinery, to integrative and wood products, which, theoretically, would deter consumers from purchasing those products and effect successful a nonaccomplishment for Canada’s economy. 

Likewise, Canada successful mid-March implemented reciprocal tariffs on $30 cardinal worthy of U.S. goods, which means Canadians volition not lone consciousness losses connected a macro standard but besides successful an contiguous consciousness arsenic prices astatine the market store person spiked connected things like leafy greens, citrus, orangish juice, beef, pork and fish.

Ottawa has yet to denote immoderate tariffs connected U.S. imported vehicles owed to reported concerns implicit however it could further hinder Canada’s economy. Though determination are immoderate $95 cardinal worthy of U.S. goods that it is reportedly considering putting tariffs on, depending connected Trump’s April 2 announcements, according to Canadian outlet Financial Post.

"They're successful the midst of a wide predetermination campaign," Andrew Hale, a elder argumentation expert successful commercialized argumentation with the Heritage Foundation, told Fox News Digital. "I deliberation it's precise hard for them to negociate and enactment these measures connected during an predetermination campaign.

"Everything they bash and accidental present carries electoral weight," helium added, noting that Canadian politicians volition request to onslaught a cautious balance: pugnacious capable connected Trump to entreaty to voters but measured capable to permission country for aboriginal negotiations connected tariffs.

"If they were to enactment connected reciprocal tariffs, it would harm the Canadian modular of surviving and person an interaction – arsenic each this already is having an interaction – successful Canada," Hale said, noting that car tariffs not lone impact nonstop car income but each businesses that trust connected vehicles, creating a trickle-down effect.

CANADIANS CLAIM THEY ARE CANCELING TRIPS TO US FOR REMAINDER OF TRUMP TERM

Canadian Liberal Party person Mark Carney speaks to supporters during a rally successful Montreal connected March 27, 2025. A national predetermination has been called, and Canadian voters spell to the polls connected April 28. (Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images)

While Trump has argued that his tariffs support U.S. manufacturing – particularly the car assemblage – the fallout could beryllium acold much terrible for Canada. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has warned that up to 1 cardinal Canadian jobs are astatine risk.

"Most Canadians unrecorded wrong 100 miles of the U.S.-Canadian border, and truthful they evidently volition beryllium heavy impacted," said Hale. "Most Americans don't."

Hale noted that portion the tariffs volition impact the full U.S., the hardest-hit areas volition beryllium industries intimately tied to Canadian imports, specified arsenic agriculture. The U.S., for instance, sources 90% of its potash fertilizer from Canada.

"This volition person a disproportionate interaction connected borderline states," Hale said, but helium added that the economical strain connected Canadian regions similar Ontario volition beryllium acold greater.

Canadian leaders person already voiced interest that arsenic galore arsenic 160,000 jobs could beryllium mislaid successful Quebec, on with another 500,000 jobs successful Ontario, depending connected however agelong the tariff quality lasts.

Both Quebec and Ontario are 2 of the provinces expected to beryllium among those hardest deed successful Canada arsenic they trust heavy connected their alloy and aluminum and lumber and forestry sectors for exports.

A idiosyncratic loads logs onto a motortruck astatine the Western Forest Products Ladysmith Log Sort successful Ladysmith, British Columbia, Canada, connected Feb. 18, 2025. Canada is the U.S.' biggest overseas lumber supplier and has already been dealing with higher duties connected its shipments that started past summer. (James MacDonald/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Canada could look a recession this twelvemonth if it can’t rein successful Trump’s tariff offensive, Oxford Economists archetypal warned successful a study past November.

Previous tariff wars betwixt trading partners during the archetypal Trump medication resulted successful billions of dollars of losses for Americans and their overseas counterparts.

TRUMP HOLDS 'EXTREMELY PRODUCTIVE CALL' WITH CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: 'WE AGREE ON MANY THINGS'

But Trump is banking connected the U.S. being little severely affected than nations similar Canada.

The afloat interaction of the tariff warfare with Canada remains uncertain arsenic Washington has besides imposed steep tariffs connected the European Union, China and Mexico. Trump has pledged to people the "Dirty 15," which are countries helium accuses of contributing astir to the U.S. commercialized deficit.

Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam are expected to beryllium among those adjacent targeted successful Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, which helium has dubbed "liberation day."

Details connected what Trump’s adjacent steps successful his tariff warfare with Canada and dozens of different nations stay chartless up of the April 2 deadline, which has created a consciousness of uncertainty, Hale said.

"Last week's Bureau of Economic Analysis Reports signaled a continued precocious halfway idiosyncratic depletion expenditure PC ostentation astatine 2.8%. So inflation, 1 could argue, is not coming down, and surely terms levels proceed to rise," helium said. "Consumer spending has slowed sharply successful some Canada and the United States."

President Donald Trump delivers remarks aft signing an enforcement bid connected reciprocal tariffs successful the Oval Office connected Feb. 13, 2025. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

"Businesses privation certainty. They can't marque aboriginal concern decisions successful this climate," helium added, noting that portion a recession could beryllium connected the skyline successful Canada, determination are excessively galore variables to marque a prediction connected the U.S. astatine this time.

"What I bash cognize is that businesses and banks, radical who are investing successful projects, privation to beryllium capable to plan," Hale said. "Hopefully, we'll person a wide thought [on Tuesday] wherever this is each going to land, and past we tin enactment with it."