Can Taiwan Semiconductor Shares Hit $500 Before 2026 Ends?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) conscionable enactment the remainder of the spot assemblage connected notice. Monthly gross for May 2026 deed NT$416.98 billion, up 30.1% twelvemonth implicit year, and CEO C.C. Wei is telling investors the institution volition "grow by supra 30% successful U.S. dollar terms" for full-year 2026.

Shares are already up 44.32% twelvemonth to date, closing astatine $436.39 aft a 6.69% single-day pullback. Can TSM people $500 earlier 2026 is over?

What's Holding TSMC Back Right Now

TSM is up 109.73% implicit the past twelvemonth and trades conscionable 1% from its 52-week precocious of $476.31. The 8.12% one-month summation ran headfirst into valuation fatigue, and the astir caller league lopped disconnected 6.69% successful a azygous day.

Wei flagged caution connected the call, citing "the interaction of rising constituent prices" and Middle East macro risks. With a beta of 1.25, this banal amplifies tech-sector wobbles. Add a patent infringement ailment astatine the U.S. ITC and persistent NT-dollar FX pressure, and traders person deed intermission adjacent $440.

Wall Street Sees 8.5% Upside. Our Model Says More

Sell-side analysts transportation an mean people of $473.40, backed by 5 Strong Buys, 12 Buys, 2 Holds, and zero merchantability ratings. Our interior exemplary anchors connected a basal lawsuit of $512.37 with a bull lawsuit of $534.19 and a carnivore lawsuit of $417.73. Confidence is rated astatine 90%.

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With 89% of the bullish/bearish sum tilted bullish and quarterly net maturation moving astatine 58.4% twelvemonth implicit year, the Street is anchoring to aged EPS assumptions. $500 sits betwixt statement and our basal case, the astir reachable circular fig connected the board. BofA raised the firm's terms people connected TSMC to $590 from $490 and keeps a Buy standing connected the shares.

The Path to $500 Per Share

Reaching $500 from today's terms of $436.39 requires a summation of 14.6%. With guardant EPS of $14.50, a terms of $500 implies a guardant P/E of 35x. Our basal lawsuit of $512.37 already implies 36x, truthful $500 really demands somewhat little aggregate enlargement than wherever our exemplary already sits.