Can Rivian Stock Beat the Market in 2026?​

In 2025, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) banal spent astir of the twelvemonth rising and falling, sometimes beating the S&P 500 and sometimes falling below, earlier the banal yet ended the twelvemonth up 48% compared to the market's 16% return.

Here's wherefore 2026 could travel a akin pattern.

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Electric conveyance (EV) investors person been connected a whirlwind implicit the past fewer years arsenic EV companies person had to navigate shifting regulations, analyzable tariffs, and the extremity of national EV taxation credits for consumers. The effect sent Rivian's banal connected a chaotic thrust successful 2025, and much uncertainty could beryllium ahead.

One of the astir important problems for Rivian and different EV makers has been the magnitude of uncertainty that has travel from the Trump administration. Tariffs, and the menace of tariffs, near automotive companies unsure of however to negociate parts supplies, and caller moves by the medication to rotation backmost Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations could origin much uncertainty for automakers.

Rivian and its peers trust connected a predictable proviso concatenation and wide regulations erstwhile they acceptable their merchandise roadmaps. With a changeless menace of caller tariffs and shifting regulations (including the aboriginal termination of EV taxation credits), the existent medication is making it hard for Rivian and different automakers to make a wide way forward.

While Rivian and its absorption did a bully occupation navigating the uncertainty successful 2025, investors should recognize that the existent medication could displacement positions connected immoderate fig of decisions and propulsion a wrench into Rivian's latest plans.

Rivian has already started disconnected the twelvemonth strong, with the company's stock terms jumping aft the institution reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results connected Feb. 12. Rivian has a nonaccomplishment of $0.54 per stock and $1.29 cardinal successful revenue, compared to analysts' statement estimation of a nonaccomplishment of $0.68 and income of $1.26 billion.

Just arsenic important was the company's 2026 conveyance transportation guidance of betwixt 62,000 and 67,000 units, which would beryllium an awesome 53% summation from 2025 astatine the midpoint. Shareholder optimism for 2026 hinges connected Rivian's caller R2 vehicle. The R2 is smaller than the company's R1 SUV and overmuch cheaper. While the R1 has a starting terms of astir $77,000, the R2 volition commencement astatine conscionable $45,000.