Can Maduro survive as Trump's oil pressure campaign hits his regime’s weak spot?

For years, Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has defied predictions of collapse. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and interior unrest person failed to unseat him. But the latest escalation by the Trump medication — including the seizure of a Venezuelan crude tanker and the enforcement of a blockade connected sanctioned vessels — has deed the authorities wherever it is astir vulnerable: its lipid trade.

Melissa Ford Maldonado, manager of the Western Hemisphere Initiative astatine the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that portion the timeline and result stay uncertain, the regime’s dependence connected lipid leaves it uniquely vulnerable. "One happening is clear: the Maduro authorities can’t prolong itself without lipid revenue," she said.

While the U.S. determination has raised concerns among European allies, who warned that the escalation could undermine determination stableness and complicate efforts toward a governmental solution successful Venezuela, Ford Maldonado says the administration’s attack is striking astatine the halfway of Maduro’s power.

"What we’re seeing present with President Trump’s bid for a full blockade of each sanctioned lipid tankers entering and leaving Venezuela is simply a nonstop deed against Maduro’s gross streams," she said. "He needs the lipid wealth from these tankers to bargain loyalty and wage disconnected generals, cartel partners and governmental enforcers to enactment successful power. That pipeline is yet being cut."

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White House property caput Karoline Leavitt was questioned astir the U.S. seizing an lipid tanker disconnected the seashore of Venezuela. (Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters )

According to Reuters, up to 11 cardinal barrels of Venezuelan crude are presently stranded aboard 39 tankers anchored offshore. 

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said the caller U.S. actions "fundamentally alteration the economics of Venezuela’s lipid exports.

"That lipid is neither sold nor paid for," Jraissati said. "Until those cargoes move, they make nary currency travel for PDVSA and deepen Maduro’s liquidity strain." PDVSA is Venezuela's state-run lipid company.

Venezuela is 1 of the astir oil-dependent countries connected earth. Oil accounts for much than 80% of exports and astir 90% of authorities revenue, leaving the federation extraordinarily exposed erstwhile crude shipments falter.

"After years of economical illness arsenic a effect of Venezuela’s socialist policies, virtually each different sectors of the system are bankrupted," Jraissati noted.

A state flare down a coking ember heap astatine the Jose Antonio Anzotegui Petrochemical Complex successful Barcelona, Anzoategui state, Venezuela, connected Monday, May 22, 2023.  (Carolina Cabral/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

U.S. sanctions connected Venezuelan lipid person been successful spot since 2019, but enforcement often lagged, and PDVSA continued to determination crude done intermediaries and opaque trading networks, chiefly toward Asia. The caller tanker seizure appears to person changed that dynamic.

The Trump medication said the seized vas was headed for Cuba, but Jraissati argued China was the much apt destination. "Tankers of that size are typically deployed connected long-haul routes, and China accounts for astir 60% percent of Venezuela’s lipid exports," helium said.

Not lone has crude go harder to sell, it has go cheaper. Venezuelan dense crude is trading astatine discounts of up to $21 per tube beneath Brent, according to sources cited by Jraissati and confirmed by Reuters reporting.

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Newly released footage shows U.S. forces securing a Venezuelan lipid tanker. (@AGPamBondi via X)

"The seizure is already reshaping Venezuela’s lipid trade," helium said. "PDVSA is facing stuck cargoes, rising terms discounts and caller demands from buyers to renegotiate spot contracts."

Oil tankers, with cargoes worthy tens of millions of dollars, present look heightened hazard if they participate Venezuelan waters. This has sent buyers and shipowners scrambling for security and caller terms.

"In wide terms, this is simply a game-changing argumentation due to the fact that it fundamentally alters the economics of exporting lipid from Venezuela," Jraissati said. "Exports volition not stop, but the conditions nether which they are sold volition deteriorate sharply. It volition weaken Maduro’s currency flow."

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An lipid tanker is seen anchored successful Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela aft loading crude lipid astatine the Bajo Grande Refinery port.  (Jose Bula Urrutia/UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images)

For years, Venezuela has utilized a "shadow" oregon "dark" fleet — vessels that crook disconnected tracking systems, swap names and power flags — to determination crude astir sanctions. Jraissati said this web of ships tries to obscure ownership done ammunition companies and predominant reflagging.

Even these workarounds are nether strain arsenic insurers and ports go wary of vessels linked to Venezuelan crude.

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U.S. forces were seen climbing staircases connected the ship. (@AGPamBondi via X)

Jraissati painted a grim representation of Venezuelan nine already unraveling nether economical collapse.

"80% of radical successful Venezuela are successful poverty," helium said. "50% are successful utmost poverty, meaning they don’t marque adjacent $3 a day."

He added that much than 30% of the colonisation — astir 8 cardinal radical — person near the state amid the ongoing crisis.

Jraissati cautioned that lipid unit unsocial volition not topple Maduro, but described the existent operation of sanctions, seizures and diplomatic isolation arsenic unprecedented.

"This needs to beryllium seen arsenic a operation of actions. Oil unit unsocial is not enough. Diplomatic unit unsocial is not enough. But erstwhile each of these are combined, determination is simply a overmuch greater anticipation of Maduro really falling," helium said.

Cale Brown, seat of Polaris National Security and a erstwhile State Department main lawman spokesperson, said authoritarian regimes often endure sanctions by shifting into illicit gross streams.

US SET TO SEIZE TENS OF MILLIONS IN VENEZUELAN OIL AFTER TANKER INTERCEPTION, WHITE HOUSE SAYS

Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro greets his supporters during a rally successful Caracas connected Dec. 1, 2025.  (Pedro Mattey/Anadolu via Getty Images)

"Regimes similar Maduro’s show small interest astir the interaction of sanctions connected their ain people, and erstwhile accepted sources of income adust up, they question different lifelines, arsenic Maduro has with narcotics and different forms of illicit finance," Brown said.

Still, Brown said Washington’s strategy reflects broader information concerns, cause and quality trafficking and hostile overseas power successful the Western Hemisphere.

"President Trump is close to place Venezuela arsenic crushed zero for galore of the problems we are acrophobic with successful the Western Hemisphere," Brown said.

Maduro has survived sanctions, protests and isolation before. But analysts accidental the existent lipid crackdown straight threatens the regime’s quality to wage information forces, support patronage networks and support the authorities functioning.

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In this April 13, 2019, record photo, Nicolas Maduro, speaks flanked by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, right, and Gen. Ivan Hernandez, 2nd from right, caput of some the statesmanlike defender and subject counterintelligence successful Caracas, Venezuela.  (Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo)

"It’s precise important that we proceed to stress that Venezuela’s lipid does not beryllium to Maduro oregon his cronies," Ford Maldonado said, "It belongs to the Venezuelan radical who made their choices wide astatine the ballot container past twelvemonth and person been robbed unsighted by the authorities which continues to enrich itself and hijack the country’s superior economical lifeline to enactment successful power. Cutting disconnected that currency is the fastest mode to weaken the regime, and weakening the authorities helps the Venezuelan people!"