Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis connected Burford Capital Limited connected Valueinvestorsclub.com by zbeex. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected BUR. Burford Capital Limited's stock was trading astatine $9.48 arsenic of January 28th. BUR’s trailing and guardant P/E were 24.52 and 9.68 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Investments, Finance

Burford Capital Limited provides ineligible concern products and services worldwide. BUR contiguous a highly asymmetric concern accidental with imaginable for 3x upside and a beardown borderline of safety. Trading astatine astir $9/share, BUR is priced adjacent single-digit P/E connected normalized net contempt a 15-year way grounds of mid-20% IRRs and astir 20% compounded publication worth growth, with $5 cardinal successful expected proceeds from existent lawsuit portfolios and optionality from high-potential litigation, including meatpacking price-fixing cases and the $16.1 cardinal YPF judgement against Argentina.

Burford is the planetary person successful litigation finance, managing $1.8 cardinal successful equilibrium expanse deployments, $1.2 cardinal successful committed cases, and $2.9 cardinal successful third-party assets, offering uncorrelated, historically beardown returns with inherent upside asymmetry done multi-bagger cases. Its scale, heavy relationships, proprietary data, and aligned absorption ownership reenforce its moat.

The YPF case, originating from Argentina’s 2012 expropriation of Repsol and Petersen stakes, has survived extended litigation and a 2023 $16.1 cardinal SDNY judgment, with appeals present earlier the Second Circuit. Legal analysis indicates an >80% probability of affirmance, with weak defenses under Forum Non Conveniens, planetary comity, Argentine law, and damages calculation. Separately, Burford’s $100 cardinal concern successful U.S. meatpacking antitrust cases offers imaginable for important multi-billion-dollar recoveries, providing additional “free optionality.”

Conservative valuation of BUR’s halfway concern suggests $16–$18/share, with the YPF lawsuit and different litigation acting arsenic optional upside, portion the Petersen Units supply nonstop vulnerability to appellate outcomes. Market misinterpretation of Second Circuit oral arguments and governmental developments successful Argentina person depressed prices, creating a compelling introduction point. The imminent Second Circuit determination serves arsenic a wide catalyst, with some equities and litigation-linked units poised for important re-rating upon favorable rulings and colony progress.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis connected Burford Capital Limited (BUR) by Coughlin Capital successful May 2025, which highlighted the company’s enactment successful litigation finance, beardown way grounds of mid-20% IRRs, proprietary information advantages, and the $16.1 cardinal YPF litigation against Argentina. BUR’s banal terms has depreciated by astir 33.61% since our sum owed to marketplace volatility and pending appeals. zbeex shares a akin thesis but emphasizes the asymmetric upside from Petersen Units and meatpacking antitrust cases, with the imminent Second Circuit determination arsenic a near-term catalyst.