Bank of America has a surprising ‘strong’ call on the 2026 economy

You’re heading into 2026 with 1 of the biggest banks connected Wall Street telling you the system tin tally stronger than astir radical expect. Bank of America’s Global Research squad utilized its December 2025 outlook to involvement retired a intelligibly bullish presumption connected adjacent year’s growth, particularly successful the United States.

In that report, the slope says it forecasts stronger‑than‑expected economical maturation successful 2026, explicitly calling its stance much optimistic than consensus. Senior U.S. economist Aditya Bhave pins U.S. existent GDP maturation astatine 2.4% connected a fourth‑quarter‑over‑fourth‑quarter basis, versus a broader forecast battalion clustered person to the low‑2% range.

Candace Browning, caput of BofA Global Research, summed up the tone, saying the squad “remains bullish connected the system and AI,” and is “optimistic connected the 2 astir influential economies, expecting above‑consensus GDP maturation for the U.S. and China.” That connection rapidly jumped from property releases into societal media, with WatcherGuru posting connected X that “Bank of America projects ‘strong’ economical maturation successful 2026,” giving retail traders a elemental header to latch onto.

To recognize what this means for your money, you person to look past the adjective and into the numbers. BofA’s 2.4% U.S. maturation forecast whitethorn dependable modest, but comparative to fears of a stall‑out oregon recession, it’s a ballot of assurance that the enlargement inactive has legs.

Bhave’s squad doesn’t halt astatine 2026. The outlook keeps U.S. maturation astatine astir 2.2% successful 2027, signaling that the slope sees a long, grinding enlargement alternatively than a short‑lived burst. On the planetary side, BofA lifts its China forecast to astir 4.7% GDP maturation successful 2026 and 4.5% successful 2027, citing better‑than‑expected commercialized and enactment from home argumentation arsenic cardinal reasons.

Those macro assumptions provender straight into however the slope thinks markets behave. In U.S. equities, its strategists task astir 14% earnings‑per‑share maturation for S&P 500 companies successful 2026 but lone 4–5% upside successful the scale level, targeting a year‑end S&P 500 astir 7,100. That operation (strong earnings, humble scale gains) suggests a satellite wherever the system is doing its job, but valuations are already affluent capable that you can’t number connected large aggregate enlargement to foodstuff returns.

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