Bank of America flags international opportunities as key growth driver for Moderna

Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) is expected to item advancement successful planetary COVID-19 vaccine markets erstwhile it reports archetypal 4th 2026 results, according to analysts astatine Bank of America.

They noted that the 2025-2026 vaccine play is winding down, and the company’s litigation risks are mostly successful the past pursuing a $950 cardinal upfront outgo successful the archetypal quarter, though analysts enactment the imaginable for up to $1.3 cardinal successful further payments depending connected the result of an ongoing ineligible appeal.

In the US, Moderna has indicated that a displacement to its higher-priced mNEXSPIKE merchandise could assistance offset stagnating oregon declining vaccination rates.

Outside the US, investors are expected to absorption connected agreements with countries specified arsenic the UK, which could lend an estimated $200 cardinal successful the archetypal quarter. Bank of America noted that "many markets are opening to Moderna pursuing expiry of pandemic-era agreements," suggesting the planetary marketplace could beryllium a important maturation driver.

Bank of America projects that Moderna’s ex-US opportunities volition stay a focal constituent passim the year, arsenic absorption has indicated that some U.S. and planetary markets volition lend to the company’s guidance of up to 10% gross maturation successful 2026.

The analysts somewhat reduced their gross projections for Moderna’s respiratory syncytial microorganism (RSV) vaccine, describing the marketplace arsenic “still a show-me story,” portion expanding COVID-19 gross expectations based connected updated vaccination complaint assumptions.

Overall, Bank of America estimates blended gross maturation of astir 7% successful 2026 compared with 2025, wrong the company’s guidance range.

For the archetypal quarter, full revenues are projected astatine $305 million, including $200 cardinal from the U.K. COVID booster programme and $50 cardinal from a concern with Pennsylvania-based partners. Investors volition besides show updates connected influenza vaccine submissions and the timing of information for Moderna’s campaigner intismeran.

Bank of America reiterated its ‘Underperform’ standing and $31 terms target, noting that shares are moving up of intismeran updates this year.

Moderna banal traded up 3.5% astatine astir $52 connected Wednesday afternoon.