Atlassian Price Prediction: Down 66%, TEAM Could Hit $185 Next

1 day ago 4

Joel South

Thu, March 12, 2026 astatine 9:33 AM CDT 4 min read

Atlassian (TEAM) posted its archetypal $1 cardinal Cloud gross 4th successful Q2 FY26, up 26% twelvemonth implicit year, with unreality nett gross retention supra 120% and remaining show obligations of $3.81 billion, up 44% twelvemonth implicit year. Non-GAAP operating borderline reached 27% successful Q2 FY26 aft the institution eliminated 10% of its workforce successful restructuring, with Q3 guided to astir 27.5% and GAAP operating borderline approaching 0% arsenic the institution moves toward profitability.
Atlassian’s cost-cutting from its 1,600-employee simplification is driving operating leverage that should accelerate the way to GAAP profitability portion supporting 22% year-over-year gross maturation guidance for FY26.
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Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM) has had a punishing stretch. Shares are down 53.47% twelvemonth to date. Over the past twelvemonth the banal has fallen 150%, a crisp retreat from a 52-week precocious of $242. Most analysts clasp much measured views, with the Street statement people sitting astatine $175.45. But Mizuho is making a specific, conviction-backed call: an Outperform standing and a $185 terms target.

But tin TEAM realistically scope $185 by the extremity of 2026?

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Mizuho lowered its people from $205 to $185, but the steadfast is wide that the revision reflects comparable aggregate compression crossed the bundle sector, not immoderate deterioration successful the underlying concern thesis. The halfway of the bull lawsuit rests connected Atlassian's restructuring, which eliminated 10% of its workforce, oregon astir 1,600 employees. Mizuho expects the resulting outgo savings to thrust higher operating margins and accelerate the company's way to GAAP profitability.

Restructuring savings compounding into margins. The $55.7 cardinal successful restructuring charges taken successful Q1 FY26 are present lapping, and the payoff is visible. Non-GAAP operating borderline reached 27% successful Q2 FY26, up 1 percent constituent twelvemonth implicit year, with Q3 guided to ~27.5%. This operating leverage means much of each gross dollar flowing toward semipermanent escaped currency travel growth.
Cloud momentum driving durable revenue. Atlassian posted its first-ever $1 cardinal Cloud gross 4th successful Q2 FY26, up 26% twelvemonth implicit year, with unreality nett gross retention supra 120% for the 3rd consecutive quarter. Remaining show obligations deed $3.81 billion, up 44% twelvemonth implicit year, signaling locked-in aboriginal gross that supports compounding returns.
Accelerated way to GAAP profitability. GAAP operating borderline is guided to astir 0% successful Q3 FY26, a meaningful measurement toward breakeven aft years of losses. Combined with plans to accelerate stock repurchases successful H2 astatine 2-3x the H1 pace, GAAP profitability would grow the beingness of organization buyers eligible to clasp TEAM.