AST SpaceMobile Is Go for Launch -- but Cash Burn Could Be a Problem

So that means the quality was good, right? Revenues rising nicely, net up of analysts' forecasts, and truthful on?

Well, not exactly.

Ahead of the report, analysts had been forecasting that AST would accidental it had mislaid $0.18 per stock successful Q4 connected gross of $2.4 million. AST did successful information suffer $0.18 per share, but its gross was lone $1.9 million. For the year, the institution missed connected some apical and bottommost lines, losing $1.94 per stock connected $4.4 cardinal successful revenue.

So far, truthful bad. To beryllium honest, though, net (or losses) aren't excessively important for AST SpaceMobile close now. The institution lone has 5 comsats successful orbit, and it hasn't yet received the go-ahead from the Federal Communications Commission to statesman beta investigating its direct-to-cell (DTC) communications service. That means immoderate gross the institution mightiness study contiguous volition be de minimis astatine best. It besides means AST has fundamentally nary accidental of earning profits anytime soon.

In different words, if AST mislaid a spot much wealth than expected successful 2024, that isn't needfully a deal-breaker erstwhile it comes to the concern thesis. Much much important volition beryllium however rapidly the institution tin physique retired its constellation, truthful it tin statesman beta testing, statesman selling DTC compartment work via partners, and statesman booking immoderate existent revenue.

And there's bully quality connected that front.

"The galore pieces of our program are rapidly coming into place," said AST CEO Abel Avellan successful the Q4 release. For example, each 5 of the company's archetypal BlueBird commercialized satellites are present operational, and it's taking steps to enactment much satellites successful orbit shortly.

Already, AST says it has 40 Block 2 BlueBirds successful production, each much than 3 times the size of the 5 BlueBirds already up there. The institution besides said it's buying parts for astatine slightest 10 much satellites beyond that.

And AST has contracted with motorboat providers SpaceX, Blue Origin, and India's ISRO to motorboat a full of 60 satellites successful 2025 and 2026.

Admittedly, it's unclear wherefore these 3 sets of numbers don't rather enactment up -- why, for example, has it contracted to motorboat 20 much satellites than it presently has successful production? One mightiness surmise though, that AST is putting unneurotic whichever of the "many pieces of [its] plan," it tin get a clasp of, arsenic accelerated arsenic it tin unafraid them, each successful anticipation they'll acceptable unneurotic close successful the end.