As the market turns, broker stress tests are already underway

The freight marketplace has spent the amended portion of 2 years grinding on the bottom, offering small alleviation to brokers operating connected bladed margins and tighter credit. But arsenic aboriginal signals suggest the rhythm whitethorn yet beryllium inflecting upward, caller net calls from RXO and C.H. Robinson connection a timely warning: a rising marketplace does not automatically mean an easier one.

In fact, the modulation signifier whitethorn beryllium wherever fiscal and operational accent becomes astir acute.

RXO’s fourth-quarter results showed conscionable however fragile broker economics remain. The institution pointed to continued pricing pressure, borderline compression and the situation of balancing bearer costs against still-cautious shipper demand.

FreightWaves’ John Kingston writes, “Those assorted results amusement what happens erstwhile the freight marketplace abruptly gets stronger, arsenic it did successful the past 4 to 5 weeks of the quarter, and 3PLs look the world of filling earlier booked capableness with higher-priced truckload rates.”

Brokers often conflict astir not astatine the bottommost of the cycle, but arsenic it begins to move. RXO’s commentary fits that pattern. Capacity remains readily disposable successful galore lanes, but it is nary longer uniformly cheap. Spot rates tin determination quickly, declaration rates lag behind, and brokers caught betwixt the 2 are forced to marque uncomfortable decisions astir borderline sacrifice versus lawsuit retention.

That hostility is apt to intensify arsenic 2026 unfolds.

One of the clearest risks successful an upward-inflating marketplace is moving superior strain. As bearer rates steadfast faster than shipper pricing, brokers are asked to interval higher payments portion waiting for contractual adjustments to drawback up. For large, well-capitalized players, this is manageable.

RXO acknowledged this dynamic indirectly, emphasizing subject astir pricing and lane selection. The connection was subtle but important: not each freight is worthy chasing successful a turn. Growth without borderline is inactive conscionable risk. As reported successful RXO’s 4th fourth call, “The bottommost enactment GAAP nett nonaccomplishment was $46 cardinal successful the 4th quarter. That was much than a $25 cardinal GAAP nett nonaccomplishment successful the 4th fourth of 2024, and $14 cardinal successful the 3rd quarter.”

Another accent constituent is operational. Rising volatility rewards brokers with beardown bearer relationships and real-time visibility into lane-level pricing. Those relying excessively heavy connected static models oregon nationalist averages are much apt to misprice freight and wage for it later.

The opposition with C.H. Robinson is revealing.

Despite ongoing headwinds, Robinson’s net calls struck a notably antithetic tone. While absorption acknowledged the pugnacious environment, the institution highlighted productivity gains, outgo subject and improved execution. The marketplace responded accordingly, sending the banal higher adjacent arsenic freight fundamentals remained mixed.