Analysis-Obesity market sales potential tightens as Novo and Lilly enter new era

By Maggie Fick, Bhanvi Satija and Mariam Sunny

LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The long-held Wall Street anticipation that the planetary marketplace for obesity drugs would scope $150 cardinal successful the adjacent decennary is looking a batch little definite with U.S. prices falling for GLP-1 treatments from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and contention heating up successful the cash-pay user market.

The fast-changing ​landscape, which includes the expected introduction of caller drugs and generic competition, has led to a recalculation of what the highest volition beryllium and erstwhile those heights whitethorn beryllium reached, analysts ‌and investors say.

“The highest has travel down a small bit," said Terence McManus, portfolio manager astatine Switzerland's Bellevue Asset Management and a Lilly shareholder, pointing to pricing successful the caller user marketplace and the motorboat of generic versions of Novo's Ozempic.

"Maybe a fewer years ‌ago radical didn't admit that that would hap truthful quickly," helium said.

Unprecedented request for the potent caller weight-loss drugs targeting the GLP-1 hormone led analysts to task a marketplace of $150 cardinal - oregon adjacent $200 cardinal - by the aboriginal 2030s. But 2030 forecasts are astir 30% little astatine astir $100 cardinal oregon truthful and that $150 cardinal people has shifted to 2035 for some.

Jefferies revised down by 20% its forecast successful January for the weight-loss marketplace to highest astatine $80 cardinal from its estimation successful 2023 of implicit $100 cardinal by the aboriginal 2030s.

"That $150 cardinal pastry is gone, adjacent if you're precise bullish connected volumes," said Jefferies expert Michael Leuchten.

Novo and Lilly, which some study fourth-quarter fiscal results connected ⁠Wednesday, are the ascendant players successful the market, with Lilly reaching a $1 ‌trillion valuation past twelvemonth and Novo's caller Wegovy weight-loss pill getting disconnected to a beardown start.

Some analysts said Novo volition forecast a diminution successful income and operating nett for 2026 erstwhile it issues its fiscal outlook connected Wednesday. Analysts expect Lilly to make implicit 21% much gross and adjusted net to turn implicit 40% successful 2026 ‍compared to 2025 estimates, according to LSEG data.

Novo declined to comment. Lilly did not instantly respond to requests for comment.

MOST BULLISH FORECASTS 'STAND ON THIN ICE'

Goldman Sachs analysts besides pared backmost expectations. Their existent estimation for planetary obesity cause income by 2030 is $105 billion, down from earlier forecasts of $130 billion, based connected steeper terms erosion and changing customer-use patterns.

After the launches of Wegovy successful 2021 and Lilly's rival Zepbound successful 2023, the drugs retailed for astir $1,000 per period successful pharmacies. Faced ​with governmental unit to little costs successful the U.S., they are present sold connected institution websites for starting prices of $149 to $299, successful portion reflecting a woody with the Trump administration.