Analysis: Disarming Hezbollah, Palestinian factions -– Lebanon's chance to reclaim sovereignty

BEIRUT, Lebanon, April 28 (UPI) -- Lebanon, shattered by 5 decades of lawlessness, subject concern and the dominance of equipped non-state actors, present has a accidental to reclaim its long-lost sovereignty -- if it tin flooded the last hurdles: disarming Hezbollah and the Palestinian equipped factions.

However, the country's caller leaders indispensable locomotion a tightrope to execute a long-awaited ngo -- 1 that seemed inconceivable conscionable months ago.

The once-powerful Hezbollah has been importantly weakened by Israel, which has assassinated galore of its apical leaders and subject commanders, destroyed overmuch of its arsenal, and forced the radical to retreat from the embattled confederate portion during a caller destructive war.

Its patron, Iran, besides has seen a crisp diminution successful influence, losing overmuch of its strength, its "axis of resistance" and its ascendant determination role.

The Palestinian equipped factions, including Hamas, are successful nary amended position. The Gaza warfare has near them successful disarray, with the Strip reduced to rubble and hardly livable -- pushing the contented of equipped conflict against Israel backmost to the forefront, but nether drastically changed conditions.

Their subject beingness successful Lebanon was called into question years ago, but now, much than ever, pursuing Hezbollah's weakening and Israel's monolithic demolition of southbound Lebanon and different areas, it tin nary longer beryllium justified oregon tolerated.

The melodramatic determination shifts and mounting planetary unit person made it wide that the clip has travel for these groups to relinquish their weapons, whether voluntarily oregon by force. Yet, contempt Israel's continued usage of overwhelming subject powerfulness against Hezbollah and Hamas, it has failed to destruct either.

Hezbollah remains well-armed and retains important subject capabilities, portion Hamas continues to combat successful Gaza and inactive holds the remaining Israeli captives. But some are stuck with constricted options.

Aware of the challenges and risks of forcing the disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the country's erstwhile Army commander, opted for engaging the militant radical successful a one-to-one dialogue.

Aoun has remained steadfast since helium was elected to the country's apical station successful January connected his pledge to disarm each militias and enforce the authorities monopoly connected weapons.

However, stripping Hezbollah of its arms by unit is "out of question" for the president due to the fact that it could pb to "a civilian war, confrontation betwixt the Army and the radical oregon among the Lebanese," according to a Lebanese authoritative source.

Hezbollah's positions and subject facilities southbound of the Litani River successful southbound Lebanon already are being taken by the Lebanese Army and its weapons confiscated successful enactment with the Nov. 27 cease-fire statement that was brokered by the United States and France to extremity the warfare with Israel.

"Instructions to the Lebanese service are wide and Hezbollah is responding. There volition beryllium nary weapons but those of the army," the root told UPI. "That's final."

In immoderate cases, residents successful the southbound person tipped disconnected the Army astir Hezbollah's well-concealed positions. Recently, soldiers discovered a Hezbollah-operated infirmary hidden wrong a mountain.

However, the contented of Hezbollah's bases northbound of the Litani River, wherever it reportedly stockpiles its long-range missiles, is much complicated.

While the cease-fire statement stipulates that Hezbollah indispensable beryllium afloat disarmed, the Iran-backed radical has argued that the proviso applies lone to southbound Lebanon.

Recently, Hezbollah has begun signaling a willingness to sermon its weapons connected the information that Israel halts its attacks and withdraws from 5 strategical hilltop positions it retained aft pulling retired of southbound Lebanon pursuing the hold of the cease-fire deadline to Feb. 18.

Hezbollah's weapons extracurricular the southbound Litani country "need a precise quiescent diplomacy," said the Lebanese authoritative source, noting that Aoun-Hezbollah dialog hasn't started yet, and the existent efforts were constricted to indirect contacts betwixt the 2 sides.

"We are inactive successful a preliminary phase, with nary enactment program oregon mechanics yet successful place," helium said, noting that the main obstacle is Israel's continued concern of the 5 positions, which besides prevents the Army's afloat deployment, and its reluctance to besides sermon 13 disputed borderline points.

"To beryllium honest, however tin you expect to speech to Hezbollah astir disarmament portion Israel continues to bombard villages, onslaught its positions and assassinate its tract commanders connected a regular basis?" the root said, asking whether Israel was not bowing to U.S. unit to retreat oregon whether Washington's pressures are precise limited.

He denied that the United States has acceptable a deadline for Lebanon to afloat disarm Hezbollah, but added, "That does not mean they volition hold for america forever."

Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said Aoun does person a beardown statement astir the risks associated with the forced disarmament of Hezbollah.

"It could perchance pb to a civilian warfare owed to the spiritual factional creation of the country, arsenic good arsenic the equipped forces," Kahwaji told UPI, noting that Hezbollah does bask wide enactment among a bully information of the Shiite assemblage successful Lebanon and is inactive regarded arsenic precise good equipped contempt its losses during the warfare with Israel.

"The Lebanese Army tin prosecute them [Hezbollah fighters] and could astir apt win successful disarming them, but this would beryllium astatine a imaginable dense cost. ... There volition beryllium surely dense bloodshed," Kahwaji told UPI.

The hazard of Hezbollah retaining its weapons oregon retaliating against Israel's ongoing attacks could precise apt supply Israel with a pretext to resume the warfare -- a script Hezbollah whitethorn not beryllium capable to withstand and 1 its fashionable basal is improbable to tolerate.

According to Kahwaji, the group's strategy of playing for time, successful the anticipation that developments successful Syria mightiness reopen its proviso routes from Iran and let it to rebuild, is "illusional astatine this stage."

But what should beryllium done with Hezbollah if and erstwhile it is disarmed?

One proposal, suggested by Aoun, is to integrate its fighters individually into the Lebanese Army -- overmuch similar erstwhile militias were absorbed aft Lebanon's 1975-1990 civilian warfare -- alternatively than incorporating them arsenic a chiseled unit, arsenic Iraq did with its Popular Mobilization Units.

However, galore subject experts pass that this attack carries important risks and could beryllium highly destabilizing.

Kahwaji explained that portion Hezbollah whitethorn tendency its fighters to beryllium absorbed into the equipped forces, the radical astir apt would privation to support cohesion and sphere its autarkic leadership.

"Integrating a radical that serves a spiritual ideology, takes orders from its ain commanders and yet answers to Iran into a secular instauration delicate to the country's spiritual and sectarian creation volition beryllium highly hard and highly dangerous," helium said.

Such a determination would complicate Lebanon's normalization with Syria's caller enactment that was calved retired of Sunni Islamic groups and astir apt would beryllium rejected by the United States., occidental powers and Arab Gulf countries that supply assistance to the war-ravaged country.

Is it the extremity of the anti-Israel equipped struggle? Would it beryllium imaginable without a conscionable solution to the Palestinian issue?

Hilal Khashan, a prof of governmental subject astatine the American University of Beirut, argued that Hezbollah volition recognize that it is "outside the Middle East subject equation," particularly since the United States and Iran "appear readying themselves for a historical agreement."

"Hezbollah is nary longer successful a presumption to situation Israel. It has go a sitting duck that does not reply Israeli regular aerial raids and assassinations," Khashan told UPI.

The Lebanon-based Palestinian equipped factions, helium said, besides person nary prime but to laic down their arms and let the Lebanese authorities to presume afloat power implicit 12 exile camps successful assorted Lebanese regions.

"Armed conflict is simply a happening of the past. If Hamas cannot clasp its crushed successful Gaza, we should not expect it to clasp connected successful Lebanon," helium added.

The Lebanese Army has begun gradually taking power of Palestinian positions extracurricular the 12 overcrowded exile camps, a determination described by observers arsenic "small but important steps" successful Lebanon's efforts to regain its sovereignty and authority.