America strikes Iran again — has Washington planned for what comes next?

The 2nd circular has begun. The United States and Israel person launched coordinated subject strikes wrong Iran, citing an existential menace tied to Tehran’s atomic and rocket programs. Explosions person been reported successful Tehran and different cities. Iranian airspace was penetrated. Iran’s Supreme Leader has reportedly been moved to a unafraid location. Tehran has already launched counter-missiles and is vowing further retaliation, including imaginable strikes against U.S. bases if attacks continue.

The strikes are called "Operation Epic Fury." It is the astir important U.S.-Israeli onslaught connected Iran since past year’s Operation Midnight Hammer.

The subject question was ne'er whether we could strike.

It was ever what happens next.

We’ve Been Here Before

Last June, Operation Midnight Hammer sent 7 B-2 stealth bombers and a guided-missile submarine against Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Fourteen 30,000-pound bunker-busters and much than 2 twelve Tomahawk cruise missiles struck successful nether fractional an hour. President Donald Trump called it "complete and full obliteration."

It was not. Damage was severe. But consequent quality assessments concluded the programme was acceptable backmost by months, not years. Iran had reportedly moved portions of its enriched uranium stockpile earlier the strikes. By precocious 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency acknowledged it could nary longer afloat verify Iran’s atomic inventory aft inspectors were restricted oregon expelled.

Military unit destroyed facilities. It did not erase knowledge. It did not dissolve intent.

Tehran absorbed that lesson.

Now Washington indispensable amusement it has absorbed lessons of its own.

The Retaliation Ladder

Iran has already begun responding. The apt signifier is familiar: calibrated escalation.

Expect proxy attacks, cyber operations, rocket signaling and maritime pressure. The Strait of Hormuz remains Tehran’s astir almighty economical lever. Roughly one-fifth of planetary petroleum flows done that corridor. After the archetypal strike, Iran’s parliament voted to adjacent it, past backed down. A 2nd confrontation, with succession dynamics present successful play, whitethorn not travel the aforesaid script.

If Iran straight targets U.S. forces successful ample numbers, escalation could determination rapidly beyond constricted strike-for-strike exchanges. The quality betwixt a punitive raid and a sustained run is often 1 rocket excessively many.

The Regime is Damaged — Not Gone

Those expecting illness should beryllium cautious. On December 28, 2025, protests erupted successful Tehran’s Grand Bazaar and dispersed nationwide. Thousands were killed oregon detained. The authorities shook — but did not fall.

Security forces did not fracture. Senior defections did not materialize. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is eighty-six. Succession is looming. Karim Sadjadpour has described the infinitesimal arsenic the "Autumn of the Ayatollahs," a strategy nether strain but inactive intact. The Council connected Foreign Relations outlines 3 plausible post-Khamenei outcomes: continuity, IRGC dominance, oregon fragmentation. None warrant moderation.

If clerical regularisation weakens further, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains the astir organized instauration successful the country.

External strikes tin fracture regimes. They tin besides consolidate hardliners.

The Revolutionary Guard whitethorn look stronger, not weaker.

The Opposition Question 

Some extracurricular Iran look to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. He has sanction designation and diaspora support. But symbolic enactment and governing capableness are not interchangeable. He does not bid a structured interior apparatus susceptible of instantly administering a 92-million-person state.

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Others constituent to the MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) and the NCRI. They support an organized outer web and mention legislature resolutions specified arsenic H.Res. 100 and H.Res. 1148 supporting a democratic, secular, non-nuclear Iran. Reports person described MEK-linked fighters mounting coordinated operations against authorities compounds, signaling operational reach.

But operational scope does not adjacent governing legitimacy. The MEK’s wartime alignment with Saddam Hussein continues to shadiness its home credibility. An equipped absorption radical tin destabilize a regime. Governing the aftermath requires broader nationalist consent.

At present, determination is nary wide post-regime blueprint.

That matters much contiguous than it did yesterday.

China and Russia Will Not Sit Idle

Beijing and Moscow condemned earlier strikes but avoided nonstop confrontation. That restraint does not mean passivity. China remains Iran’s largest lipid customer. Russia has conducted associated exercises with Iranian naval forces. Neither needs to nonstop troops to complicate Washington’s objectives. Arms transfers, quality cooperation, cyber enactment and diplomatic shielding astatine the United Nations are capable to signifier outcomes.

The struggle whitethorn stay regionally contained. But great-power friction ever lurks astatine the margins.

The Real Test Begins Now

The 2nd onslaught has happened.

The subject objection is complete.

Now comes the harder phase.

Has Washington accounted for escalation successful Hormuz? Has it gamed retired IRGC consolidation? Has it prepared for succession turbulence? Has it defined wide objectives beyond "degrade and deter"? Has it established exit criteria?

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Iran learned from the archetypal round. It dispersed material. It tightened security. It survived shock.

America indispensable show it has learned too.

Military spot tin crater runways, illness tunnels and soundlessness radars.

Strategy determines whether that unit reshapes the regime’s behaviour — oregon simply resets the clock.

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The satellite is watching the explosions.

History volition justice what follows the greeting after.

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