ALEX BERENSON: Trump's crafty deal could end war in Ukraine, but media's war on Trump goes on

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"Trump Pressures Ukraine to Accept a Peace Plan That Sharply Favors Russia."

So The New York Times warned a week ago, erstwhile the White House said Ukraine and Russia needed to marque bid quickly. Slate, which has reached MSNBC levels of crazy-liberal, went adjacent further: Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan Gives Russia Everything It Wants…

Sharply favoring Russia! Giving Russia everything it wants! We are backmost successful 2016, with Donald Trump arsenic a Kremlin agent, a modern Manchurian candidate.

Just 1 problem. These headlines aren’t adjacent adjacent to the world of what the Trump medication is proposing. (I know, you’re shocked.)

In fact, the much I work and deliberation astir the ceasefire proposal, the much impressed I americium with the tack President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio person taken.

They are walking a precise constrictive tightrope. If they tin negociate it they’ll merit tremendous praise. Nobel Peace Prize-type praise, though the Kremlin volition frost implicit earlier King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden puts that medal astir Trump’s neck.

UKRAINE SIGNS DEAL TO GIVE US ACCESS TO RARE MINERALS WITH TRUMP ADMIN ‘COMMITTED TO A PEACE PROCESS’

Let’s commencement with immoderate unpleasant facts: Russia’s penetration of Ukraine is an old-school onshore drawback by a murderous dictator. In a cleanable world, the Ukrainian radical would emergence up, evict the Russian service with boomerangs, and thrust into the sunset.

But successful this world, China puts a cardinal Uighurs successful open-air detention camps and cipher does squat. Viruses gonna virus, and large powers gonna large power. Even middling powers, if they person atomic arms and the close (aka wrong) attitude.

In this world, aft an archetypal burst successful 2022, Ukraine has mislaid territory dilatory but steadily for the past 2 years, contempt monolithic American aid. Russia has 4 times Ukraine’s population, and a person who faces nary home constraints keeping him from losing arsenic galore men arsenic helium deems necessary.
The Europeans speech a bully crippled astir helping, but they person neither the subject nor the governmental volition to bash much than speech (again, shocker!) For 80 years, Europe has had a unspeakable lawsuit of "let’s you and him fight." This warfare is lone the latest proof. Have you noticed the Bundeswehr connected the Ukrainian beforehand lines? Me neither.

So Ukraine needs the United States.

And the United States has elected a president who does not judge this warfare is simply a bully idea.

President Trump wants peace. The near says helium wants bid due to the fact that helium hates Zelenskyy and wants to physique Trump Tower Kremlin. The close says helium wants bid due to the fact that helium is bushed of sending American taxation dollars truthful Ukrainian and Russian boys tin termination each other.

Me, I’m not going to guess. I don’t presume to cognize what’s successful our president’s head, overmuch little his heart.

Here’s what I bash know. A bid that simply gives the Russians a fewer months to rearm is not a bid astatine all.

Here’s what other I know. The Trump medication knows that, too.
The medication has not afloat released its ceasefire connection publically (a astute move, and a motion that it is superior alternatively than playing governmental games). But the details of it person leaked, arsenic the medication nary uncertainty expected.

And its astir important constituent is the 1 the media has hardly mentioned: The connection contains NO restrictions connected the size of the Ukrainian military, arsenic the Russian authorities wanted. That was a non-starter for Ukraine, a existent reddish line.

Nor does the connection necessitate Zelenskyy to quit, oregon adjacent — arsenic acold arsenic we cognize — clasp escaped elections.

Nor does it necessitate Ukraine oregon immoderate different state to admit that the Crimean peninsula is portion of Russia (though, apparently, it does widen American recognition).

So wherefore is the near shrieking?

First, due to the fact that the woody keeps the beforehand lines successful place, beauteous much. Meaning that Russia is going to proceed to inhabit the territory it present occupies.

So Trump is… hold for it… rewarding aggression! He’s allowing Putin to redraw Europe’s borders! (Well, 1 borderline of 1 state that adjacent astir Europeans astir apt couldn’t find connected a map.)

Yep. He definite is.

What precisely bash the critics propose? Newsflash: Putin is not going to voluntarily springiness up the territory that hundreds of thousands of men person died taking. And Ukraine can’t marque him. That’s wherefore we request a ceasefire. 
There is thing antithetic astir an armistice that keeps the beforehand lines successful place. Like, say, astatine the extremity of the Korean War. Maybe aft Putin dies, a caller Russian authorities volition determine eastbound Ukraine wasn’t truthful important aft each and propulsion back. In the interim, the warring and sidesplitting person stopped.
Second, due to the fact that the United States seemingly promises to admit Crimea arsenic Russian territory. The humanity!

Except that Crimea WAS Russian territory from 1783, erstwhile Catherine the Great annexed it, until 1954, erstwhile Soviet person Nikola Khrushchev transferred it backmost from Russia to Ukraine. Sure, 1954 sounds similar a portion agone - but that successful 1954, some Russia and Ukraine were parts of the Soviet Union.

In different words, Khrushchev’s transportation made nary applicable difference. The Kremlin, arsenic the spot of Soviet control, inactive controlled the territory, and did truthful until the USSR collapsed successful 1991. Thus, betwixt 1783 and 2014, the Crimea was nether Moscow’s regularisation for 208 years, and Kiev’s for 23.

Does this mean Crimea belongs to Russia? I person nary idea.

What I bash cognize is that erstwhile Russia took Crimea (back) successful 2014, neither the United States nor anyone other rushed to Ukraine’s aid. The Crimean Peninsula is strategically captious to the Kremlin, due to the fact that its larboard of Sevastopol is Russia’s lone warm-water port. It is overmuch much important to Russia than the territory Russia has seized since 2022, and adjacent aft Putin is agelong gone, Russia isn’t going to springiness it up without a fight.

And, again, the Trump medication isn’t saying Ukraine has to judge this takeover arsenic portion of a bid deal, lone that the United States will.
Third, the critics are whining that the connection includes a prohibition connected Ukraine joining NATO. This objection is genuinely stupid. Even earlier the war, Ukraine was — astatine champion — decades from joining NATO.

So, to review: The woody the Trump medication has projected doesn’t necessitate Zelenskyy to quit, allows Ukraine to clasp its quality to fight, does not necessitate it to cede immoderate territory it hasn’t already lost, and — arsenic acold arsenic we cognize — does not bounds the quality of Europe oregon the United States to proceed to assistance Ukraine militarily.

In return, Russia keeps Crimea and the different territory it has already grabbed. And it has the imaginable to person sanctions — sanctions that person proved wholly ineffective successful changing its behaviour — removed.

I conjecture I’m missing the portion wherever this connection "sharply favors Russia."
No wonderment the Kremlin, contempt its nationalist praise for Trump, hasn’t jumped connected it.

About that nationalist praise: Putin needs a triumph if he’s going to marque peace. On the different hand, aft 3 years of promising to evict the Russian army, Zelenskyy needs idiosyncratic to blasted for the information that helium couldn’t.
The Trump medication is providing a utile foil for both. Zelenskyy gets to rant astir the American betrayal portion Putin puffs his thorax and lets his media lavish praise connected him for outfoxing the Americans. The woody doesn’t change.

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The cardinal connection successful each of this is lasting.

If the Russians instrumentality this woody lone to interruption the ceasefire and marque a caller propulsion connected Kiev successful a fewer months, it volition beryllium hard not to respect immoderate bid arsenic a monolithic miscalculation.

But is Putin truly apt to beryllium spoiling for different war? This 1 didn’t spell arsenic planned. It outgo him hundreds of thousands of men for marginal territorial gains.

And helium indispensable cognize that if helium starts hostilities again, the United States and Europe volition spot small prime but to travel to Kiev’s aid. This way, helium tin state triumph and get backmost to his billion-dollar Black Sea palace.

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I deliberation the likelihood are bully that if Trump tin propulsion this woody through, it volition clasp until Putin winds up successful the large Kremlin successful the entity (or, much likely, down below).

In that case, Trump’s critics volition nary uncertainty admit his unthinkable accomplishment successful ending Europe’s astir brutal warfare successful generations rapidly and comparatively cleanly.

Sure they will.

Alex Berenson is simply a erstwhile New York Times newsman and the writer of 13 novels, 3 non-fiction books, and the "Unreported Truths" Substack.