AAON Sees HVAC Recovery, $1B Data Center Opportunity Despite Margin Pressure

4 hours ago 2

MarketBeat

Tue, June 2, 2026 astatine 12:02 PM CDT 7 min read

Key Points

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AAON is seeing betterment successful its airy commercialized HVAC business, with CEO Matt Tobolski saying 2026 should beryllium a “good, beardown betterment year.” He pointed to improving bookings, stock gains, and request successful areas similar healthcare, retail, and warehouse/distribution.
Data halfway request remains a large maturation driver, with AAON raising its outlook to $1 billion. The institution says request is broad-based crossed airside, chiller, and liquid cooling products, and its BASX concern present has much than $2 cardinal of gross capableness crossed its manufacturing base.
Margins are nether unit from accumulation and outsourcing issues, including coil outsourcing and earlier disruption from refrigerant transitions, proviso concatenation constraints, and ERP implementation problems. AAON says operations person improved, but near-term outsourcing should proceed until interior capableness catches up with growth.

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AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) executives outlined expectations for continued maturation successful some airy commercialized HVAC and information halfway markets during a William Blair presentation, portion besides addressing caller accumulation challenges, borderline unit and ongoing efforts to standard the company’s operations.

CEO Matt Tobolski said AAON operates done 2 superior brands: the bequest AAON brand, focused mostly connected semi-custom and customized rooftop units for airy commercialized customers, and BASX, which serves information halfway customers. Both businesses are built astir customized solutions intended to amended full outgo of ownership, helium said.

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AAON Doubles Down: Dividend Raise & Share Buyback Plan

Tobolski said AAON has expanded rapidly successful caller years, increasing from nether 2 cardinal quadrate feet of mill abstraction to much than 4 cardinal quadrate feet, and from astir 2,000 employees to 7,000 employees implicit astir 4 years. He said the company’s caller absorption has been connected gathering the operating level needed to enactment that scale.

Light Commercial Market Showing Signs of Recovery

Asked by William Blair’s Ryan Merkel astir the airy commercialized outlook for 2026, Tobolski said the marketplace is showing signs of improvement. He said AAON’s 2025 volumes were down, but not astir arsenic overmuch arsenic the broader market, which helium described arsenic grounds of outperformance.

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“As we exited 2025 ... we’ve continued to spot much and much conversations successful our accepted transactional benignant business,” Tobolski said. He added that successful the archetypal quarter, those conversations began translating into stronger bookings.

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