Maduro’s forces face renewed scrutiny as US tensions rise: ‘a fortress built on sand’

As tensions emergence betwixt Washington and the Maduro regime, experts told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s subject whitethorn look formidable connected insubstantial but is hollowed retired by years of corruption, decay and governmental control. While they accidental Venezuela cannot halt a determined U.S. strike, immoderate broader cognition would beryllium acold much analyzable than the White House suggests.

Isaias Medina, an planetary lawyer and erstwhile Venezuelan diplomat who denounced his ain authorities astatine the International Criminal Court, described Venezuela arsenic a criminalized authorities dominated by narcotrafficking networks.

"Venezuela contiguous resembles a fortress built connected soil wrapped astir a transgression regime," helium said, adding that immoderate hypothetical U.S. enactment would beryllium "evicting a violent cartel that settled adjacent doorway and not invading a country."

Medina warned that Venezuela’s dense civilian colonisation — besides victimized by the authorities — demands utmost caution. "The lone acceptable attack is overwhelming bias toward restraint and longer operational timelines, forgoing targets that cannot beryllium struck cleanly."

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Soldiers of the Venezuelan service march with subject vehicles during a parade arsenic portion of the Independence Day celebrations astatine Fuerte Tiuna successful Caracas, Venezuela connected July 5, 2023. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

He said the military’s capabilities look amended connected insubstantial than reality, with instrumentality rusting from deficiency of attraction and thousands of politically appointed generals disconnected from an estimated 100,000 lower-ranking troops who whitethorn wantonness their posts nether pressure.

Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, elder manager astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center connected Cyber and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s astir applicable menace lies successful its air-naval systems — and adjacent those could beryllium rapidly eliminated.

"You person to interruption this up," helium said. "There’s an air-naval part, which is astir apt what could interaction our onslaught operations," including combatant jets, constricted naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missiles.

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Soldiers with their faces painted march during a subject parade to observe the 205th day of Venezuela's independency successful Caracas, Venezuela July 5, 2016. (Carlos Jasso/Reuters)

But Montgomery said the U.S. could rapidly neutralize them. "Reasonably speaking, successful the archetypal time oregon 2 of a run plan, we tin destruct the aerial and maritime menace to U.S. forces," helium said.

Any U.S. program targeting cocaine accumulation would statesman with "simultaneous strikes connected the airfields, the craft and the aerial defence limb systems to guarantee that they don’t respond to immoderate U.S. attacks connected different assets."

Asked whether Venezuela could retaliate aft specified strikes, Montgomery replied: "Not against an aerial campaign. No."

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Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian National Guard basal successful enactment arsenic they transportation retired an accrued information patrol on Lake Maracaibo amid rising tensions betwixt Venezuela and U.S., successful Maracaibo, Venezuela, connected Oct. 26, 2025.  (Isaac Urrutia/Reuters)

Montgomery stressed that portion aerial defenses tin beryllium eliminated quickly, a crushed cognition would beryllium a acold antithetic story. "They person a tiny nonrecreational military… 65 to 70,000 people, galore of whom astir apt don’t privation — they didn’t articulation the service to fight," helium said. The state besides maintains a monolithic militia, whose information would beryllium connected loyalty to Maduro.

But geography and standard marque a onshore cognition a nightmare scenario. "Venezuela is astir apt doubly the geographic size of California, 35 to 40 cardinal citizens," Montgomery said. "This would beryllium a terrifically challenging crushed campaign, particularly if it turned into a counterinsurgency."

He added bluntly: "Today, I would not bash this. I bash not urge it."

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A squad of Venezuelan Air Force K8W craft overflies during the 2025 Venezuela concern aviation expo astatine the Libertador Air Base successful Maracay, Aragua State, Venezuela, connected Nov. 29, 2025. (Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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Montgomery does enactment an aerial run which helium believes volition beryllium much businesslike than the existent naval tactics. He cited his acquisition commanding U.S. Navy counter-drug operations: "Every 1 of these 21 ships could person been pulled implicit by a premix of Navy and Coast Guard assets and helicopters." But quality often proved unreliable.

Despite years of decay, Venezuela inactive possesses a large, uneven premix of subject hardware. Analysts accidental it cannot halt a U.S. run but could complicate aboriginal phases.

Soldiers instrumentality portion successful a drill led by the Bolivarian National Armed Forces to bid citizens successful weapons handling, aft Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro deployed the subject crossed communities nationwide arsenic portion of a nationalist outreach inaugural aimed astatine grooming some enlisted citizens and residents amid rising tensions with the United States, successful Yagua, Venezuela, Sept. 20, 2025. (Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters)

Its inventory reportedly includes 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 flyable Su-30MK2 jets. Air defenses see the S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M.

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Venezuela’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China proceed to interest U.S. officials.

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, said "numbers amusement lone 20% of Venezuelans o.k. of this regime," informing that for much than a decennary "there has been nary respect for the volition of the population" arsenic Caracas aligns with "anti-Western regimes that destabilize the region."