Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

This is portion 1 of a bid examining the challenges confronting the NATO alliance.

As President Donald Trump ramps up unit connected NATO allies to summation defence spending — and orders the withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany implicit the adjacent six to 12 months — a deeper contented is coming into focus: adjacent arsenic allied budgets rise, NATO inactive depends heavy connected American subject powerfulness to function.

NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, "I told the president… possibly you ought to speech astir a tiered narration with NATO," Kellogg described conversations with Donald Trump successful his archetypal word astir the alliance’s future. "…we request to make a new, for deficiency of a amended term, a caller NATO a caller antiaircraft alignment with Europe."

Kellogg, who served arsenic a elder nationalist information authoritative during Trump's archetypal term, said the confederation has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what helium sees arsenic a increasing spread betwixt commitments and existent capability.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer airs with NATO state leaders during the NATO Heads of State and Government acme successful The Hague, Netherlands, connected June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)

"You started with 12, and you went to 32, and successful the process, I deliberation you diluted the impact," helium argued, calling today’s NATO "a precise bloated architecture."

"They haven't enactment the wealth into defense. Their defence manufacture and defence forces person atrophied. When you look astatine the Brits close now, they could hardly deploy forces: they person 2 craft carriers, some nether maintenance. Their brigades are similar 1 retired of six that work. And you conscionable look astatine the capability, it's conscionable not there. So I deliberation we request to recognize that and say, well, we request thing different," Kellogg, who is the co-chair of the Center for American Security astatine the America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

But not everyone agrees the confederation is losing relevance.

"It has ne'er been much relevant," said John R. Deni, a probe prof astatine the U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains cardinal to U.S. nationalist security.

"The crushed for that is twofold," helium said. "One, it’s our comparative vantage versus the Chinese and the Russians… they don’t person thing similar this."

"And the 2nd reason… NATO underwrites the information and stableness of our astir important commercialized and concern relationship," helium added, referring to economical ties betwixt North America and Europe.

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NATO Chiefs of Defense clasp a hybrid gathering successful Brussels connected Aug. 20, 2025, with screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to sermon Ukraine. (Fox News)

Dependence: Design oregon Weakness?

By astir 2010, the United States accounted for astir 65% to 70% of NATO defence spending, according to investigation provided by Barak Seener from the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based deliberation tank.

"They’ve ever been babelike connected the U.S.," Kellogg said of the European allies.

"The allies wide trust upon 1 different for deterrence and defence by design," Deni said, explaining that alliances beryllium to "pool their resources" and "aggregate their idiosyncratic strengths."

Deni pointed to crushed forces arsenic a wide illustration of what the U.S. gains from the alliance, noting that "there are acold much allied mechanized infantry forces connected the crushed than determination are Americans."

Still, helium acknowledged that reliance has astatine times gone excessively far.

"In the past… it was just to accidental that the European allies were overly reliant upon the Americans for accepted defense," helium said, pointing to the 2000s.

That, helium said, was partially driven by U.S. priorities — arsenic Washington pushed European allies to absorption connected wars successful Afghanistan and Iraq alternatively than territorial defense.

A Polish Army worker sits successful a vessel arsenic a NATO emblem flies down during the NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises connected June 18, 2015, successful Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Seener describes NATO arsenic "formally collective, but functionally asymmetric," with the U.S. providing a disproportionate stock of "high-end capabilities."

That asymmetry is astir disposable successful atomic deterrence.

Seener said the U.S. provides the overwhelming bulk of NATO’s atomic arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategical bombers — meaning deterrence yet relies connected the presumption of U.S. retaliation.

A NATO authoritative told Fox News Digital that, "The U.S. atomic deterrent cannot beryllium replaced, but it is wide that Europe needs to measurement up. There’s nary question. There needs to beryllium a amended equilibrium erstwhile it comes to our defence and security. Both due to the fact that we spot the captious relation the U.S. plays astir the satellite and the resources that it demands, and besides due to the fact that it is lone fair."

"The bully news," the authoritative added, "is that the Allies are doing precisely that. They are stepping up, moving unneurotic — and with the U.S. — to guarantee we collectively person what we request to deter and support 1 cardinal radical surviving crossed the Euro-Atlantic area."

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Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of the U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade alert implicit a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry warring conveyance during the Allied Spirit 25 subject workout adjacent Hohenfels, Germany, connected March 12, 2025.

The Systems NATO Cannot Replace

Beyond atomic weapons, the dependence runs done the alliance’s operational backbone.

Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — arsenic good arsenic logistics and bid systems — arsenic indispensable to NATO operations.

"Without U.S. quality and surveillance, NATO loses situational consciousness and aboriginal informing capabilities," Seener said, adding, "So that means that Russia, for example, tin onslaught Europe. And theoretically, if there's nary NATO and the U.S. is not involved, Europe would not beryllium aware, oregon it would instrumentality it excessively agelong to beryllium capable to support itself."

Kellogg besides says that overmuch of Europe’s subject capableness falls abbreviated of top-tier systems.

"For the astir part, their equipment, if you had to people it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re benignant of similar B players oregon C players," helium said. "It’s not the archetypal enactment of work."

He pointed to aerial and rocket defence arsenic a cardinal gap, noting that portion European countries trust connected U.S.-made systems specified arsenic Patriot and THAAD, "they don’t person a strategy that’s comparable."

Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defence industries "have atrophied," adding that the United States is besides present "relearning that arsenic well."

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks connected arsenic President Donald Trump and Poland's President Andrzej Duda speech during a moving luncheon astatine the NATO leaders acme successful Watford, Britain, connected Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Deni said the representation contiguous is much mixed.

"Alliance defence spending has been up… and has spiked acold much aft 2022," helium said, pointing to Russia’s penetration of Crimea successful 2014 arsenic a turning point.

But helium cautioned that capableness gains instrumentality time, noting that galore improvements are inactive years distant from afloat deployment.

Deni pointed to caller European purchases of U.S. systems arsenic grounds of increasing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring the F-35 combatant pitchy from the U.S.

"You can’t physique an F-35 overnight," helium said, adding that galore of these improvements volition instrumentality years to afloat materialize.

A NATO authoritative told Fox News Digital the confederation "needs to determination further and faster" to conscionable increasing threats, pointing to caller capableness targets agreed by defence ministers successful June 2025.

Keith Kellogg speaks during the Warsaw Security Forum 2025 connected Sept. 30, 2025, successful Warsaw, Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The authoritative said priorities see aerial and rocket defense, long-range weapons, logistics and ample onshore forces, noting that portion details stay classified, plans telephone for a fivefold summation successful aerial and rocket defense, "thousands more" armored vehicles and tanks, and "millions more" artillery shells. NATO besides aims to treble cardinal enabling capabilities specified arsenic logistics, proscription and aesculapian support.

The authoritative added that allies are expanding investments successful warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, arsenic good arsenic abstraction and cyber capabilities, portion boosting readiness and modernizing bid and control.

"These targets are present included successful nationalist plans," the authoritative said, adding that allies indispensable show however they volition conscionable them done sustained defence spending and capableness development.

The NATO authoritative besides noted that European allies pb multinational forces crossed Central and Eastern Europe, portion the U.S. and Canada service arsenic model nations successful Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing aerial policing missions and NATO’s KFOR cognition successful Kosovo.

One of 3 Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen combatant craft takes disconnected from the Blekinge Wing F17, based successful Kallinge confederate Sweden for a basal successful Sardinia to articulation the Nato-led cognition successful Libya, connected Saturday, April 2, 2011. As Sweden joins NATO, it bids a last farewell to much than 2 centuries of neutrality. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)

What happens if the U.S. is stretched?

Kellogg’s informing is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends connected U.S. presence.

"The 1 you ever person to interest about… is Russia," Kellogg, who was Trump’s peculiar envoy for Ukraine and Russia successful 2025, said.

If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could look superior strain — peculiarly successful areas similar quality and logistics.

For Kellogg, the information is delay. "We won’t cognize until it happens," helium said. "And past you won’t beryllium capable to respond to it."

Deni, however, said the confederation remains a strategical plus — not a liability.

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A NATO subject unit stands defender extracurricular the World Forum successful The Hague up of the two-day NATO acme connected June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)

The question, helium suggests, is not whether NATO inactive works. It is whether allies tin accommodate accelerated capable to support it working.